Legal Commentary

Demography In Virginia

By Big Tent Democrat

SUSA's Virginia poll gives us a perfect opportunity to do the type of demographic analysis we used to good effect during the primaries.

SUSA has Obama winning Virginia by 9 points. In the poll, Obama leads among A-As (18% of the electorate) by 86-13 and trails among whites (74% of the electorate) 42-53. The other 8% of the electorate is divided among Latinos (4% of the electorate) and Other (4%.) Compare this potential result with the 2004 race in Virginia -- Kerry won A-As by 87-12 and they were 21% of the Virginia electorate. SUSA predicts Obama will do worse with A-As than Kerry did and turn out in lesser numbers. Not happening. As in the primaries, SUSA simply does not poll A-As well. Obama will win 95% of the A-A vote in Virginia and it may reach 25% of the vote. Thus, even if SUSA is overreporting Obama's white support, and that seems unlikely as it never did so during the primaries, Obama seems a shoo-in in Virginia. More . . .

Can McCain get 65% of the white vote in Virginia? That's what it will take for him to win Virginia. George W. Bush won 68% of the white vote (and 12% of the A-A vote) in Virginia in 2004 and won by 8. In the 2006 VA Senate race, when only 16% of the electorate was A-A, Jim Webb had to win 42% of the white vote (and just 38% of white men) to squeak by Allen.

Let's split the difference between Bush's 2004 68% and George Allen's 2006 58%. Call it 63% of the white vote for McCain in Virginia. Let's assume a 2004 turnout in Virginia - with no increased A-A voters (a 21% A-A share of the electorate) but let's adjust McCain to 5% of African American votes. That gets McCain 46% of the vote. To win then, he needs half of the Latino and Asian vote in Virginia to get to 50. Not very likely.

Thus, giving McCain very favorable assumptions with white voters and A-A turnout, he still can't win in Virginia.

By Big Tent Democrat, speaking for me only

Full post as published by TalkLeft on October 27, 2008 (boomark / email).