Legal Commentary

3 Weeks Out: The Polls And LV Screens

By Big Tent Democrat

With 3 weeks to go, the polls have all switched to a LV (likely voter) model. It is important to understand the each organization has its own likely voter model. Gallup invented its famous one (the 5 questions) and, as far as I know, has not varied it much. As a result, Gallup LV polling has been subject to wild fluctuations. By contrast, Rasmussen (and others, R2000 for one, I think) on the other hand, has switched to a party ID likely voter model and is more stable. And of course each polling outfit has its own general house biases and flaws. (One misconception to be addressed here is about the Bradley Effect. That turns up, for the most degree and if at all, in exit polls, not in pre-election polling.) Later I will round up some old posts from 2004 on the LV model controversies. But for now, let's look at the polling 3 weeks out.

DKos/R2000 has Obama up 12, 52-40. WaPo/ABC has Obama up 10, 53-43. Gallup's new LV polling has Obama up 6, 51-45 (or 4, 50-46, using their 2004 model.) Hotline has Obama up 8, 49-41. Battleground has Obama up 8, 51-43. Ras has Obama up 5, 50-45.

More . . .

The final big event of the campaign is Wednesday night's Presidential debate at Hofstra University in Long Island. After that, it is a sprint to the finish.

By Big Tent Democrat, speaking for me only

Full post as published by TalkLeft on October 13, 2008 (boomark / email).