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: Outside Counsel

By Bill Altreuter

I've been saying it for a while, and now Birch Bayh is saying it too. According to FiveThirtyEight.com Indiana could tilt this year. My hypothesis was based on a couple of things. First of all, although it hasn't tended to go to the Democratic candidate, its congressional delegation is evenly split. There is more of a Democratic base in the Hoosier State than in a lot of red states, and always has been. Then there is Indiana's proximity to Obama's Illinois home base. We've been hearing that Obama's ground game is solid in all sorts of unlikely places, and it made sense that it would be good in a next-door neighbor. Finally, even before the economy completely unraveled, Indiana was hurting. The agriculture sector has been hurting almost as much as the state's manufacturing base. It looks like all of this is coming together, and if it is coming together in a place like Indiana-- a state that hasn't gone blue since 1964, than possibly we are looking at a map-changing election.

Full post as published by Outside Counsel on October 06, 2008 (boomark / email).