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College Football Game Predictions and Results - 2008 Season - Week 4 (part 2)

By Andis Kaulins

Arkansas State (7.7, 4.3) is favored at home by 5 points over Middle Tennessee (4.7, 5.0).
Our call: 35-28 for Arkansas State
Last year, these teams, clearly stronger this year, were nearly even in the ratings and rankings, with Middle Tennessee holding a slight edge. Both have beaten quality opponents, with Middle Tennessee upsetting Maryland two weeks ago and Arkansas State beating Texas A&M to start the season. A botched field goal cost the Red Wolves the game against Southern Miss. We call it by one TD for Arkansas State, 35-28.
Result: Arkansas State won 31-14.
Our prognostication performance this week: 42-11 in calling the winner, 21-10 against the spread.

Massachusetts (-1.5) at Texas Tech (+0.2)
Our call: 42-24 for Texas Tech.
Result: 56-14 for Texas Tech.
Our prognostication performance this week: 43-11 in calling the winner, 21-10 against the spread.

Cincinnati (5.9 , 6.1 ) is favored at home by 12 1/2 points over Miami (OH) (4.8 , 5.2).
Our call: 41-17 for Cincinnati.
Last year Cincinnati (SPRS rating of -0.3 last year) averaged 6.0 yards per play on offense as opposed to 5.0 yards on defense and Miami of Ohio (SPRS rating of 3.1 last year) averaged 5.1 and 5.2 yards respectively. This year the Bearcats were mauled by the Sooners, which gives them worse stats than they will have at the end of the year. With the home field advantage, based on last year's final ratings, Cincinnati would by favored by 24 points by SPRS.
Result: Cincinnati won 45-20.
Our prognostication performance this week: 44-11 in calling the winner, 22-10 against the spread.

Florida State (8.4, 3.2), ranked 24th, is favored at home by 4 1/2 points over Wake Forest (4.7 , 4.8), ranked 18th.
Our call: 41-31 for Florida State.
In last year's final SPRS rankings, Wake Forest (4.7, 4.6) was ranked 35th and Florida State 38th (5.3, 5.1), as the Seminoles lost on the road to the Demon Deacons 24-21. Florida State has thus far put up super stats against undermanned teams, so this will be a true test.
Result: The Wake Forest defense continues to astound, beating the Seminoles 12-3. Incredible.
Our prognostication performance this week: 44-12 in calling the winner, 22-11 against the spread.

Fresno State (6.2 , 4.9) is favored on the road by 6 1/2 points over Toledo (5.4, 5.2).
Our call: 27-17 for Fresno State.
Last year the Bulldogs had stats of 6.0 and 5.6 and the Rockets had stats of 5.9 and 6.3 on yards per play offense and defense. By last year's final SPRS rating, Fresno State (-1.9) would be favored over Toledo (-4.0) by 19 (2.1 x 9)minus 3 points = 16 points. This year, the yards per play shows a 1.1 point better rating performance by Fresno State = 10 points minus the Toledo home field advantage = 7 points. We think the Bulldogs are even stronger than that, judged by a 13-10 loss to Wisconsin in which Fresno State was the more dominating team statistically, and call it by 10 for Fresno State.
Result: A real barnburner, as Fresno State won 55-54 in two overtimes.
Our prognostication performance this week: 45-12 in calling the winner, 22-12 against the spread.

Georgia (7.1 , 4.6) is favored on the road by 6 1/2 points over Arizona State (7.0 , 4.2).
Our call: 31-27 for Georgia.
The Sun Devils lost ignominiously to UNLV in overtime last week 23-20, a Rebel team which last year won only two games and which had been soundly beaten by Utah 42-21 the previous week. Last year, Georgia finished 0.9 rating points higher than Arizona State = 8 scoreboard points minus the Sun Devil home field advantage of 3 points = 5 scoreboard points. This season, the Bulldogs rank .5 points higher on comparative yards per play = 4.5 scoreboard points.
Result: Georgia dominated Arizona State 27-10.
Our prognostication performance this week: 46-12 in calling the winner, 22-13 against the spread.

Indiana (6.1, 3.7) is favored at home by 3 1/2 points over Ball State (7.6 , 5.4).
Our call: 35-27 for Indiana.
By last year's final SPRS ratings, Indiana would be favored by 9 + 3= 12 points. Current yards per play averages would give the edge to Indiana by 2 + 3 = 5 points. We split the difference and call it by 8 points for Hoosiers, 35-27.
Result: Zounds! Ball State pummeled the Hoosiers 42-20.
Our prognostication performance this week: 46-13 in calling the winner, 22-14 against the spread.

LSU (6.9 , 3.6) is favored on the road by 2 points over Auburn (5.0, 3.2).
Our call: 20-10 for LSU.
By last year's final SPRS ratings, LSU had a rating advantage of 1.6 and would be a 14 (1.6 x 9) minus 3 = 11 point favorite in this game. By current yards per play average, LSU holds a similar comparative 1.5 yards per play edge. We call it for LSU by 10.
Result: LSU won 26-21.
Our prognostication performance this week: 47-13 in calling the winner, 23-14 against the spread.

Mississippi (6.7, 4.5) is favored at home by 5 1/2 points over Vanderbilt (5.2 , 5.1).
Our call: 28-21 for Mississippi
By last year's SPRS stats, Vanderbilt rated 0.3 rating points better than Mississippi = 3 points, which would make this game even because of the Old Miss home field advantage. Except for a squeaker 2-point lost to Wake Forest, Houston Nutt is off to a good start at Mississippi, as the yardage stats also show, which give the Rebels 2.1 yard per play advantage = 19 points. Vandy may be undefeated, but we do not see them winning on the road against Ole Miss and call it 28-21 for Mississippi.
Result: Correction. Vandy did beat Mississippi on the road 23-17 in spite of the Rebels putting up 385 total yards offense to Vanderbilt's 202.
Our prognostication performance this week: 47-14 in calling the winner, 23-15 against the spread.

Stanford (4.1, 5.5) is favored at home by 9 1/2 points over San Jose State (5.3, 4.3).
Our call: 27-22 for Stanford
Last year Stanford was rated by SPRS at -3.3 and San Jose State at -3.5, which is about 2 scoring points, plus the home field advantage would make the Cardinal a 5 point favorite.
Result: Stanford won 23-10.
Our prognostication performance this week: 48-14 in calling the winner, 23-16 against the spread.

TCU (4.9, 3.2) is favored on the road by 24 points over Southern Methodist (5.9, 6.7).
Our call: 35-10 for TCU.
The final SPRS ratings from last year would make TCU a 32 point favorite minus the SMU home field advantage = 29 points. By comparative net average yards per play this season, TCU is 2.5 points better = 23 points minus 3 = 20 points. We split the difference since SMU is somewhat better this year than last.
Result: TCU won 48-7.
Our prognostication performance this week: 49-14 in calling the winner, 24-16 against the spread.

Texas (6.4, 5.1) is favored at home by 30 1/2 points over Rice (5.8, 6.1).
Our call: 51-17 for Texas.
By SPRS final ratings from last year Texas would be favored by 52 points over Rice, but by comparative yards per play this season, the Longhorns would be favored only by 17. We split the difference at 34 points.
Result: Texas won 52-10.
Our prognostication performance this week: 50-14 in calling the winner, 25-16 against the spread.

Tulsa (8.7, 5.9) is favored at home by 10 points over New Mexico (4.5, 4.3).
Our call: 40-14 for Tulsa
Last year the teams were virtually even by SPRS ratings. The Lobos have a good defense which should cut down the Tulsa points production, but we give the edge to Tulsa here by 2.6 points x 9 = 23 points plus 3 points home field advantage = 26 points.
Result: Tulsa won 56-14.
Our prognostication performance this week: 51-14 in calling the winner, 26-16 against the spread.

UNLV (4.9, 5.9) is favored at home by 3 points over Iowa State (5.6, 5.5).
Our call: 27- 21 for Iowa State.
The final ranking by SPRS for these teams last year was 134th and 135th. UNLV upset Arizona State last week. By yards per play comparison, Iowa State should win by about 9 points minus the 3-point UNLV home field advantage = 6 points.
Result: UNLV beat Iowa State in overtime 34-31.
Our prognostication performance this week: 51-15 in calling the winner, 26-16-1 against the spread.

UTEP (4.8, 7.0) is favored at home by 6 points over New Mexico State (4.8, 8.1).
Our call: 48-37 for UTEP.
This is a battle of two of the worst defenses in the country. By last year's SPRS rating, UTEP would be a 9 point favorite. By current yards per play average, UTEP would be about a 13 point favorite.
Result: New Mexico State won 34-33.
Our prognostication performance this week: 51-16 in calling the winner, 26-17-1 against the spread.

Nicholls State (not rated) at Memphis (-4.3)
Our call: 40-13 for Memphis.
Nicholls State was not in the top 250 of the SPRS ratings last year and Memphis had a final SPRS rating last year of -4.3.
Result: Memphis won 31-10.
Our prognostication performance this week: 52-16 in calling the winner, 26-17-1 against the spread.

Wofford (-3.1) at South Carolina (-1.2)
Our call: 37-17 for South Carolina.
Result: South Carolina won 23-13.
Our prognostication performance this week: 53-16 in calling the winner, 26-17-1 against the spread.

Sam Houston State (-4.2) at Kansas (+0.8)
Our call: 55-7 for Kansas.
Result: Kansas won 38-14.
Our prognostication performance this week: 54-16 in calling the winner, 26-17-1 against the spread.

Southeastern Louisiana (-5.8) at Louisiana Tech (-4.1)
Our call: 38-20 for Louisiana Tech.
Result: Louisiana Tech won 41-26.
Our prognostication performance this week: 55-16 in calling the winner, 26-17-1 against the spread.

Appalachian State (-1.6) at James Madison (-2.2)
Our call: James Madison 36-35 over Appalachian State.
This is one of the best games of the day, matching the threepeat Division I-AA FCS champion with one of the perennial powerhouses in Division I-AA, James Madison, who the Mountaineers were lucky to beat in the playoffs 28-27 last year. After their initial 41-13 loss to LSU, Appalachian State clobbered Jacksonville 56-7, who in turn the next week beat Campbell 52-0. James Madison has a very strong team again this year, beating UMass 52-38 last week. As we now know, the opening 31-7 loss to Duke was not to a classically weak Duke team but to strong, revamped Blue Devils under new coach David Cutcliffe. Armanti Edwards of the Mountaineers was not his usual dominating self in the game against Jacksonville, so we are not sure if he is 100% healthy. We are Mountaineer fans, but we think James Madison may have the edge here because of the home field advantage.
Result: James Madison won 35-32.
Our prognostication performance this week: 56-16 in calling the winner, 26-17-1 against the spread.

Weber State (-4.4) at Sacramento State (-5.4)
Our call: 30-24 for Weber State.
Result: Weber State won 32-27.
Our prognostication performance this week: 57-16 in calling the winner, 26-17-1 against the spread.

South Dakota State (-3.3) at Northern Iowa (-1.9)
Our call: 37-21 for Northern Iowa.
Result: Northern Iowa won 34-20.
Our prognostication performance this week: 58-16 in calling the winner, 26-17-1 against the spread.

Jacksonville State (not rated) at Chattanooga (-4.8)
Our call: 28-21 for Jacksonville State.
Jacksonville State in its last game beat Alabama A&M 45-18, which in our SPRS ratings last year had a rating of (-4.8). Jacksonville State the previous week lost to Georgia Tech 41-14. Last year they beat Chattanooga at home 33-19, so we make them the favorites here.
Result: Jacksonville State won 31-3.
Our prognostication performance this week: 59-16 in calling the winner, 26-17-1 against the spread.

Cornell (-5.8) at Bucknell
Our Call: 35-28 for Cornell.
Result: Cornell won 21-20.
Our prognostication performance this week: 60-16 in calling the winner, 26-17-1 against the spread.

North Carolina A&T (not rated) at Hampton (-6.0)
Our call: 24-17 for Hampton.
Result: Hampton won 44-7.
Our prognostication performance this week: 61-16 in calling the winner, 26-17-1 against the spread.

Prairie View A&M (-5.6) at Mississippi Valley State (not rated)
Our call: 33-24 for Prairie View A&M
Result: Prairie View A&M won 49-15.
Our prognostication performance this week: 62-16 in calling the winner, 26-17-1 against the spread.

Eastern Kentucky (-4.5) at Tennessee State (-5.9)
Our call: 31-21 for Eastern Kentucky
Result: Tennessee State won 34-20.
Our prognostication performance this week: 62-17 in calling the winner, 26-17-1 against the spread.

Morgan State (-5.8) at Winston-Salem (not rated)
Our call: 28-21 for Morgan State
Result: Morgan State won 21-7.
Our prognostication performance this week: 63-17 in calling the winner, 26-17-1 against the spread.

North Dakota State (-1.4) at Youngstown State (-3.6)
Our call: 31-17 for North Dakota State
The Bison gave their last game away at Wyoming and lost 16-13 on a last-second field goal after an unnecessary last-minute interception.
Result: Youngstown State won 32-24.
Our prognostication performance this week: 63-18 in calling the winner, 26-17-1 against the spread.

Elon (-3.6) at Georgia Southern (-3.1)
Our call: 38-30 for Georgia Southern.
Elon beat Presbyterian 66-12 last week but Georgia Southern is a different caliber of opponent, who lost to Georgia only 45-21 to start the year. In 2007, the Phoenix of Elon beat the Eagles of Georgia Southern at home 36-33. This year we give the home edge to Georgia Southern.
Result: Elon won 22-20 on a field goal with 6 seconds left on the clock.
Our prognostication performance this week: 63-19 in calling the winner, 26-17-1 against the spread.

Towson (-5.2) at Coastal Carolina (not ranked)
Our call: 28-17 for Towson.
Result: Coastal Carolina won 31-3.
Our prognostication performance this week: 63-20 in calling the winner, 26-17-1 against the spread.

Central State at Alabama A&M (-4.8)
Our call: 34-17 for Alabama A&M.
Result: Alabama A&M won 37-17.
Our prognostication performance this week: 64-20 in calling the winner, 26-17-1 against the spread.

Tennessee-Martin (-5.7) at Austin Peay (not ranked)
Our call: 27-20 for Tennessee-Martin.
Last year Austin Peay beat Tennessee-Martin at home 17-14 and they are hosting Tennessee-Martin again. Last week, Tennessee-Martin beat Concordia College 87-21.
Result: Tennessee-Martin won 31-17.
Our prognostication performance this week: 65-20 in calling the winner, 26-17-1 against the spread.

Quincy (not ranked) at Central Arkansas (-4.7)
Our call: 40-10 for Central Arkansas.
Central Arkansas is undefeated and beat a strong UC Davis team 24-21.
Result: Central Arkansas won 51-6.
Our prognostication performance this week: 66-20 in calling the winner, 26-17-1 against the spread.

Cal Poly (-3.7) at Northwestern State (-6.0)
Our call: 35-17 for Cal Poly.
Result: Cal Poly won 52-18.
Our prognostication performance this week: 67-20 in calling the winner, 26-17-1 against the spread.

Norfolk State (-5.8) at William & Mary (-4.0)
Our call: 40-21 for William & Mary.
Result: William & Mary won 42-12.
Our prognostication performance this week: 68-20 in calling the winner, 26-17-1 against the spread.

Jackson State (-4.4) at Grambling State (-4.7)
Our call: 31-30 for Grambling State.
These teams played twice last season with Grambling State winning the first 30-20 and Jackson State winning the second 42-31. This game could go either way, so we go with the home team.
Result: Grambling State won 14-5.
Our prognostication performance this week: 69-20 in calling the winner, 26-17-1 against the spread.

Stephen F. Austin (not rated) at Western Illinois (-3.3)
Our call: 49-10 for Western Illinois.
Western Illinois opened its season by nearly beating Arkansas and last week beat a very strong South Dakota State team.
Result: Western Illinois won 34-14.
Our prognostication performance this week: 70-20 in calling the winner, 26-17-1 against the spread.

Eastern Illinois (-5.2) at Illinois State (-5.1)
Our call: 31-24 for Illinois State.
Last year Eastern Illinois lost at home to Illinois State 24-21.
Result: Eastern Illinois won 25-21.
Our prognostication performance this week: 70-21 in calling the winner, 26-17-1 against the spread.

Northern Arizona (-4.6) at Southern Utah (-5.7)
Our call: 38-17 for Northern Arizona.
The Lumberjacks have a very strong team this year, losing only 30-13 to Arizona State to open the season and then overpowering New Mexico Highlands 68-10.
Result: Northern Arizona won 19-14.
Our prognostication performance this week: 71-21 in calling the winner, 26-17-1 against the spread.

Western Washington (not rated) at Eastern Washington (-3.0)
Our call: 40-14 for Eastern Washington.
Eastern Washington has a strong team, losing its first games to Texas Tech and Colorado of the Big 12, but by comparative scores, Western Washington might be 3 TDs better than last year so that Western Washington could be assigned a rating now of about -5.5.
Result: Eastern Washington won 52-31.
Our prognostication performance this week: 72-21 in calling the winner, 26-17-1 against the spread.

Ferris State (-4.3) at Grand Valley State (-1.0)
Our call: 40-7 for Grand Valley State.
Result: Grand Valley State won 31-13.
Our prognostication performance this week: 73-21 in calling the winner, 26-17-1 against the spread.

Abilene Christian (-3.2) at Southeastern Oklahoma (not ranked)
Our call: 58-10 for Abilene Christian.
Who will beat Abilene Christian this year? Maybe nobody. Abilene Christian opened their season with an impressive 44-27 win over perennial Division II power Northwest Missouri State, a victory which catapulted them into the top 5 of the Division II rankings. Abilene Christian has a phenomenal offense led by a quarterback named Billy Malone, who might have a shot at the Harlan Hill Trophy this year, and whose name might even pop up one of these next years in the NFL. Read the remarkable story, as reported by Kevin Sherrington of WFAA.com, from which we quote as follows:

"Last year, [Malone] passed for more yards than any ACU quarterback since Clint Longley and led the Wildcats to their first postseason appearance in 30 years. This season ? which just ended in the second round with an improbable 76-73 triple-overtime loss to Chadron State in Nebraska ? he trashed the record books.

Under third-year coach Chris Thomsen and offensive coordinator Ken Collums, the Wildcats set or tied 82 NCAA, Lone Star Conference and ACU records, including the score of their last game. ACU also became the first school in NCAA history to field a 3,500-yard passer, 2,000-yard rusher and a pair of 1,000-yard receivers, all in one season.

Get this: All four will be back next season, including Malone, who, at 6-3, 235 pounds, turns 25 in April."

Result: We missed the actual score by only a point, as Abilene Christian demolished Southeastern Oklahoma State 59-10 behind Billy Malone's 317 passing yards and 3 passing TDs.
Our prognostication performance this week: 74-21 in calling the winner, 26-17-1 against the spread.

North Alabama (-3.0) at West Georgia (not ranked)
Our call: 47-14 for North Alabama.
Result: North Alabama won 53-0.
Our prognostication performance this week: 75-21 in calling the winner, 26-17-1 against the spread.

Nebraska-Omaha (-1.7) at Missouri Southern State (-5.0)
Our call: 41-14 for Nebraska-Omaha.
Result: Nebraska-Omaha won 40-21.
Our prognostication performance this week: 76-21 in calling the winner, 26-17-1 against the spread.

Ouachita Baptist (not ranked) at Valdosta State (-2.3)
Our call: 30-7 for Valdosta State.
Valdosta State does not have the same strength as last year when it won the Division II championship. Last year Ouachita Baptist lost 31-3 at Valdosta State.
Result: Valdosta State won 29-6.
Our prognostication performance this week: 77-21 in calling the winner, 26-17-1 against the spread.

Ohio Northern (not ranked) at Mount Union (-3.3)
Our call: 42-0 for Mount Union.
The top-ranked Mount Union Purple Raiders opened their season with a 33-3 win over 10th-ranked St. John Fisher in Division III football as Nate Kmic ran for 231 yards and Greg Micheli passed for 224 yards. Mount Union had an 8.2 to 3.9 advantage in the average net yards gained per play or a NAYPPA of 4.2, the statistic which best shows a team actual dominance over another team.
Result: Mount Union won 44-7.
Our prognostication performance this week: 78-21 in calling the winner, 26-17-1 against the spread.

Full post as published by LawPundit on September 19, 2008 (boomark / email).