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The Palin Effect

By Big Tent Democrat

Some unsolicited advice for Sarah Palin. And not of the Rovian concern troll variety. Ignore the handlers. Do not worry about the details of your general answers. Do not try to be a wonk.

Palin's strength is her personality and personna. She is not the person in the room with all the knowledge obviously. She will never convince anyone of that. Heck, she might want to expressly avow that.

The politician she most reminds me of is not Dan Quayle, it is Ronald Reagan. Ronald Reagan was the most ignorant person I can remember to have ever held high public office. He was wrong on the facts almost every time. But he was confident in his beliefs. He was incredibly wrong about them, but as a politician, he projected a confidence and disregard for the pointy heads that had great appeal. Trying to stuff her with facts, which is what the McCain people seem to have done, was a great mistake. The Joe Sixpack line she delivered the other day may have been a signal that the McCain camp has woken up to this fact.

More . . .

Palinpaloozers are relishing this debate tonight. I fear it. For the past two weeks, the political discussion has been dominated by the economy and the failure of Republicanism. Tonight it could be overshadowed by a successful Palin performance.

Of course Palin could implode tonight and maybe that will be that. But I fear she could succeed, as she did in her first appearance and in her convention speech. And then she will have changed the political conversation.

The timing of this debate is extremely fortuitous for McCain. Palin can change the conversation and then just 5 days from now, McCain debates Obama again. And McCain might keep the change of conversation going.

Every day for 2 weeks has been a win for Obama, big wins. Right now the trajectory of the election is a big Obama win. Starting tonight, the McCain camp probably has its last chance to change that. And I do not like that.

The best result for Democrats tonight would of course be a complete Palin failure. The second best result would be a completely forgettable night that is forgotten by the weekend.

The worst result is a good Palin night discussed through the weekend and thus opening the door for McCain to really rechange the game on October 7.

I wish Sarah Palin to remain an afterthought (the way Joe Biden is) in this election now. She may not be after tonight, for better or worse. And that is a risk for the Obama campaign, because right now the election is in the bag for him.

By Big Tent Democrat, speaking for me only

Full post as published by TalkLeft on October 02, 2008 (boomark / email).