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TYC caseload projections questioned

Sen. John Whitmire opened this morning's hearing on the Texas Youth Commission by grilling Legislative Budget Board analyst Michelle Connolly over their projections earlier this year predicting growth in TYC inmate populations over the next few years. Connolly explained that because the average length of stay at TYC remains around 13-14 months, a steady intake rate (they estimated TYC will receive 2,090 new inmates per year) will inevitably cause the number of incarcerated youth to increaes, all else remaining equal.As became clear during the discussion, actions by the Legislature next year in the TYC Sunset bill or changes in agency policy could significantly alter long-term projections. However, Connolly's explanation of their methodology convinced me LBB wasn't just blowing smoke when they predicted near-term increases in TYC caseloads...continue to full post

Full post as published by Grits for Breakfast on October 01, 2008 (boomark / email).