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Romney is the Anti-McCain

By wt

We're looking at a three-man race going into next Tuesday.

And though McCain obviously has the momentum at this point, he should be very worried about some of the exit poll numbers coming out last night.

Romney won pro-lifers.
Romney won the mainstream religious. (Huckabee won the very religious ? less than one-fifth of the pool.)
Romney won the Protestants.
Romney tied Huckabee with Evangelicals.
Romney won the pro-GWB voters.
Romney is the primary second choice of Giuliani voters, Thompson voters ?. and McCain voters.
Romney won the immigration hard-liners.
Romney won the upper-middle class, earning between $100,000 and $200,000 annually.
Romney won the terrorism-oriented voters.
Romney won the self-identified conservatives and the self-identified very conservative.
Romney won the values-oriented voters.
Romney won the white voters.
Romney won the tax-cutting voters.

Those are some scary numbers for McCain, and they indicate that going forward, his victories are far from assured.

But what is saving McCain at this point? The answer --- Mike Huckabee.

As long as Huckabee continues to siphon and wall off the very conservative voters, McCain will have a much clearer path to the nomination.

And a Giuliani endorsement will plausibly give him several huge primary victories before Huckabee decides to drop out of the race. By the time the right coalesces around Romney, McCain's momentum will be unstoppable.

But if Huckabee is closer to Romney in political orientation, why does he stay in the race just to make Romney lose?
1. Personal Animosity. He hates Romney.

2. Huck thinks he can win a few southern states; enough to be relevant, and perhaps even dislodge Romney as the non-McCain candidate.

3. The longer Huck stays in, and the more delegates he accumulates, the more likely a VP nomination is forthcoming.

Full post as published by Expressio Unius on January 30, 2008 (boomark / email).