Academic

President Palin, and Other Electoral College Curiosities

By Calvin Massey

Rasmussen's current Electoral College projections raise some intriguing possibilities.  Counting states leaning D or R, Obama has 255 votes and McCain has 247.  The pure toss-up states  are Virginia(13), NM(5), Nevada(5), NH(4), and Colorado(9).  For discussion's sake, give McCain VA to bring him up to 260.  It's not unlikely -- he has a slight lead, albeit within the margin of error.  Then give Obama Colorado and McCain NH and one of either NM or NV.  Tie: 269-269.  Or give McCain Colorado and Obama NM, NH, and NV.  Tie: 269-269.  In such an event the 12th Amdt says the House shall immediately choose the President, although the relevant federal statute seems to indicate that it would be the incoming House.  Enter the Supreme Court?  Please, not yet.  Assume it's the old House (the Constitution trumps statutes).  Each state gets one vote.  28 states have delegations of which a majority are Democrats, 20 have Republican delegations, and two (Kansas and Arizona) are split equally.  President Obama.  Probably;  but hold on.  The Senate picks the VP and each Senator has one vote.  Assume Joe Lieberman votes for Palin, making a 50-50 tie, which VP Cheney would break.  Vice President Palin.   An interesting pairing, but wait! There's more.  Six of the House delegations are Democratic by a single vote: NJ, NC, Colo, Indiana, Tenn, and Iowa.  If three Representatives (one from each of three different states) could be induced to vote for McCain there would be a 25-25 tie (assuming each of Kansas and Arizona voted McCain) or a 25-23 Obama vote If Kansas and Arizona could not break their internal deadlocks. Not enough, as the 12th Amdt requires a "majority of all the states."  (Why would Dems defect? Perhaps their district voted for McCain and so did their state, not implausible in the case of Tenn, NC, Indiana, or Colorado.)  So the choice would then devolve to the incoming House.  Perhaps there would be a quick resolution in favor of Obama, but that would take us back to Obama-Palin (remember, I'm assuming Lieberman votes for Palin and Cheney breaks the tie, so there's no VP choice for for the new Senate to act upon).  But suppose the new House deadlocks 25-25.  On January 20 at noon Sarah Palin would take the oath as VP, and because the office of President would be vacant, she would be President Palin.    Of course, if the VP spot was also vacant on January 20 we would have President Pelosi.  Either way, Hillary Clinton would be green with envy. 

Full post as published by The Faculty Lounge on September 24, 2008 (boomark / email).