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: Begging the Question

My quick take on McCain's gambit, and more

By "Milbarge" and "Fitz-Hume"

So the news today is that John McCain is "suspending" his campaign to go to Washington and roll up his sleeves and solve the economic mess and support the pending $700 billion bailout bill. He has proposed to Barack Obama that they postpone this week's debate. My thoughts:

I'm sure the Republicans who have actually been working feverishly to get this lead balloon afloat are just tickled that John Wayne McCain is ready to swagger back to the Capitol, get directions to his office, and tell them all what's what. It's beyond pointless of him to make this move unless he shows up with some kind of plan and then actually does something. It will look dumb if all he does is cast a vote. He will have to be seen as the one taking charge of all this. A) I don't see anyone caring what McCain has to offer, or even letting him appear to be in charge. B) If the bill fails, he's emasculated and this gamble is a total washout. C) If it passes, it's McCain's albatross. It will undercut a lot of his rhetoric about reform and cutting spending, etc. And my sense is that the American people are far from sold on this plan. Is he that confident that in six weeks this bill will look like a genius move? That the public will support the bailout? In the long run, McCain might be better off running against the bill, but McCain doesn't think "long run." This "bold" move fits with his campaign's tendency to care more about winning the news cycle than planning long term. He'll look great for a day or two, but then what? My gut sense of McCain's plan: very little upside, lots of downside, and it might not even be the right thing to do on the merits.

I had a long talk last night with an old friend who is now a financial analyst or investment advisor or something. He's pretty convinced that the stakes are high, things could get quite bad, and the government needs to do something. He endorses a smaller-scale stopgap measure, with the assumption that eventual costs may rise to $700 billion or $1 trillion eventually. But he's against writing that check for the full amount right now. The thing that really swayed him, I think, was just listening to how panicked Paulson and Bernanke sounded in the hearings. He's convinced they're convinced, and that scares my friend.

My concern is that the public is skeptical that this is another Y2K -- a lot of hype for a fizzle. I hope we don't have to find out there hard way.

Full post as published by Begging the Question on September 24, 2008 (boomark / email).