Law Students

Convention Bounce

I think this is about as good as the Obama people could hope for. A VP announcement and the start of the Republican convention, and they get a bounce of about 6 points. Hard to ask for much more.

The problem for the GOP is that their convention isn't feeling similarly, what's the word? Promotional. Obviously, Hurricane Gustav is forcing them to tone down the message. But conventions are about dominating media coverage, and the GOP can't do that this week easily.

Palin needs a knockout performance tomorrow night. If she gives it, she'll burn up the networks with talk of how maybe she was the right pick after all. That gives McCain the opportunity for a knockout performance on Thursday.

If either doesn't happen, though, I think you'll see Obama's 8 point lead hold. At least until the debates, if not longer.

Full post as published by Expressio Unius on September 03, 2008 (boomark / email).