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Some strategery in light of the pending Super Tuesday

By 4L

Here are some of my thoughts regarding the upcoming "super" primary event, esp. since Sen. Kennedy put the smackdown on Billary over the weekend. Some of my less humorous remarks are repeats from my entry last week; a little is new.

The way I see things playing out at this point is that McCain is going to win the Republican primary. Assuming that is the case, I think that the only Democrat that will be able to beat him will be Sen. Obama. Here is why.

Both McCain and Clinton (to the extent that the previous exit polls support my theory) are targeting the same 65+ market segment. Neither one has done much to woo the young vote. Obama, by contrast (and for whatever reason that is unimportant to this entry), has seemed to be able to rally the typically apathetic youth vote. If Clinton wins the Democratic primary, I don't see her being able to motivate this same youth demographic to bother to come back out in November.

If Clinton does win, we're left with two Washington-centered old-timers courting the same old tired baby boomer vote. Nobody on television (save certain squirrelly pharmaceutical commercials advertising products with questionable side effects, see, e.g., Aaron D. Twerski, Liability for Direct Advertising of Drugs to Consumers: An Idea of Whose Time has not Come) caters to this demographic; why should the presidential candidates be any different?

How much longer will it last before these "old folks" realize that they are past their prime? Retire already and give our economy a boost by spending your hard earned savings. And think how many jobs will be created when this vacuum gets started? There's a platform to rally behind.

The reason why, I think, Obama has been able to rock the youth vote is the same reason I've been saying all along (and in some respects, I would speculate the same reason President Kennedy was able to pull the same stunt in 1960): The younger generation is tired of so-called "old" Washington. Obama has, for better or for worse, been able to stay above that stigma. Assuming he emerges as the victor, I'm not that surprised that Sen. Kennedy has endorsed him. At this point, the Democratic party has to be thinking, who can beat McCain? Certainly they can't say with a straight face that it will be Hillary. Regardless, I submit that neither McCain nor Clinton (old or new) will have the same pull among youth that Obama has shown, and if Obama isn't in it, I see a string of "I told you so" comments emerging from our liberal press because the youth vote will remain at its traditionally low levels of participation.

But that overstates my position somewhat. The youth (meaning 18-34 demographic) will come out in droves if they think someone will come in and champion the cause for change. I think that Obama is the only viable Democrat who can pull this off. And, if he doesn't, well, then it won't really matter who is the Democratic nominee, does it? The true test of whether my hypothesis is correct will be revealed on Election Day.

What I find more interesting at this point, is who McCain would pick for a vice president. Regardless of whether it's Clinton or Obama that he (or whoever) is running against, the red guys are going to have to find someone who can spark or take away votes from the blue guys. I would think that the best person to do that is Condoleeza Rice. I can't say I'm the first person to posit this, nor will I be the last once McCain has his golden ticket. But mark my words, it's only a matter of time before the press picks up and figures out what is good or bad about this idea.

We'll see what happens next.

Full post as published by The Once and Future Lawyer on January 28, 2008 (boomark / email).