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Legal Commentary
: LawPunditPreseason College Football Ratings Rankings and Previews for the 2008 / 2009 Season
By Andis Kaulins
The start of the 2008 / 2009 college football season is less than a month away .... and the 120 Stadiums in Division I-A (FBS) Football can accommodate 6.3 million spectators at full capacity. One can argue whether the "Big House" (Michigan Stadium in Ann Arbor) or Beaver Stadium at Penn State is the largest. The answer is unclear - because of a lawsuit regarding seating - but actual attendance records give Michigan the edge. The world's largest stadium is the Indianapolis Motor Speedway with Strahov Stadium in Prague, Czech Republic, second.
Dear legal readers and also international readers not interested in American football - please bear with us on these sports postings, but they are always among the most popular of all the things that we post to LawPundit. And there is a connection between law and sports. Men are all warriors at heart and part of the problem of world tensions is that too many cultures have not been able to "civilize" the warriorlike urges of their citizens. Instead of throwing or kicking rocks (or stepping on mines), our children should be throwing baseballs or kicking soccer balls, and instead of throwing incendiary weapons at each other, we should be throwing "touchdowns" on the sports field. Law and sports are civilized options which channel man's aggressive nature sensibly. Both acknowledge our warrior's heritage, demand winners and losers, and provide no less excitement than war, but such competitions and conflict resolutions are largely bloodless. There are in the case of sports, generals (coaches) and soldiers (players), just as in military action. The thrill of victory or defeat is the same, but people are not being killed, as in war, and the warrior lives to fight another day, as it should be. May the best team win!
SCHEDULES
(see the college team football schedules at James Howell, ESPN, Yahoo Sports, Fox Sports, Sports Illustrated, NCAAfootball.com, Division I-AA (FCS), Division II football, Division III football, NAIA at Victory Sports Network, NJCAA) PRESEASON RANKINGS
SPRS
SPRS will start the season using the final ratings and rankings from last season. 1 rating point difference = 9 points on the scoreboard, without adjustment for home field advantage. Obviously, these ratings should change week to week depending upon team performance, but it is not likely we will have the time to make the calculations, except at season's end.
USA Today Coaches Poll
Some preseason rankings are already out. For example, the USA Today Preseason Top 25 Coaches Poll for Division I-A (FBS) (see digg) was published August 1, 2008. We are as skeptical as the CollegeFootballNews.com at Scout.com. BS for the BCS?
Rivals.com Preseason Countdown RANKING
followed by the LawPundit Commentary
The preseason rankings and reports at the Rivals.com Preseason Countdown are instrumental to understanding and prognosticating the coming football season. Each team page at Rivals.com also presents the team's college football schedule for the 2008 / 2009 season. We show the Rivals.com ranking below together with our own commentary about each team.
UNIVERSITY OF SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA TROJANS
Rivals.com Preseason Countdown: No. 1 USC
We agree with this selection by Rivals.com. Southern Cal finished 3rd in our SPRS rankings the past season. Trojan coach Pete Carroll seems to have gone back to a primary 4-3 defense after foolishly instituting a 3-4 defense two years ago, which cost USC dearly, and if Carroll sticks primarily with the 4-3 defense, we think that USC could go undefeated this year. It will be interesting to see how much playing time Arkansas Razorbacks transfer Mitch Mustain will get at the quarterback position or if Mark Sanchez retains the starting QB position now assigned to him. QB is the big question-mark at USC. We think Mustain is a winner and could take USC all the way. SPRS ranked the Trojans 3rd at the end of the previous season.
GEORGIA BULLDOGS
Rivals.com Preseason Countdown: No. 2 Georgia
Last year at preseason, we saw Georgia as the nation's potentially top team, except for their unresolved problems at quarterback. Mark Richt is an experienced coach. The QB position is now set and the Bulldogs are surely a strong team, but their performance last year ranked only 9th in our own SPRS ratings, so that we think that a No. 2 ranking at this point is still too high given their track record. Plus, the Bulldogs currently have serious internal disciplinary problems. (Unfortunately, very aggressive young males can make excellent athletes, if they learn to channel their energies and aggression into sports and not vent that energy and aggression through socially harmful behaviour. "Channeling Aggression" should be a mandatory college course for young people.) In any case, in our opinion the Bulldogs should not be ranked ahead of Florida at this early stage in the season and they look likely to lose at least two games this season, their road game at LSU and the game to Florida in Jacksonville. We ranked Florida at 7th to close out last year.
OHIO STATE BUCKEYES
Rivals.com Preseason Countdown: No. 3 Ohio State
The September 13 game at USC sets the tone for the pecking order this season in the upper echelons of I-A football. We just don't see the Buckeyes beating the Trojans on their home turf, much as we respect head coach Jim Tressel of Ohio State as a winner. A USC win in that game will surely propel them to the top of the rankings and drop the Buckeyes back into a battle through their Big 10 schedule to face a do or die regular season ending game against Michigan, headed by new coach Rich Rodriguez, who by the end of the season will be coaching a formidable opponent playing better than the 30th rank given to the Wolverines by Rivals.com currently. Ohio State finished second in our final SPRS ratings last year and Michigan 29th. By the end of the year, these teams should be near equals.
OKLAHOMA SOONERS
Rivals.com Preseason Countdown: No. 4 Oklahoma
West Virginia mauled the Sooner defense in the 2008 Tostitos Fiesta Bowl to win 48-28 and we would not rank Oklahoma this high again this year until it shows signs of being able to defend its own territory. The Sooners have a stellar QB in Sam Bradford and a high-powered offense to balance the leaky defense. Oklahoma finished sixth in our final SPRS ratings last year. The Sooners have had tremendous talent for several years, but some essential ingredient to greatness is still missing. It can't be physical hard work, but perhaps there is not enough hunger to win the big ones, or it may be a question of a lack of discipline.
MISSOURI TIGERS
Rivals.com Preseason Countdown: No. 5 Missouri
Mizzou had a great season last year as we ranked them 8th in our final SPRS ratings last year. Top quarterback Chase Daniel returns to fan Missouri hopes. However, Missouri was a strong team last year but not an overly dominant one, giving up an average of 354 yards per game to Big 12 competition, so that a repeat this year will be difficult, as we think, for example, that the road games at Texas and Nebraska this year could turn out to be Mizzou losses.
FLORIDA GATORS
Rivals.com Preseason Countdown: No. 6 Florida
With top coach Urban Meyer and returning QB Heisman Trophy winner Tim Tebow leading perhaps the best offense in college football, this team has a solid base on which to build its hopes for a national title this season, in which the Gators are unlikely to duplicate last year's ignoble feat of losing 4 games. The offense is as formidable, however, as the defense is questionable, and it will be the development of the defense which determines Gator fortunes. SPRS ranked Florida 7th last year, in spite of 4 losses, which shows how good this team could potentially be.
AUBURN TIGERS
Rivals.com Preseason Countdown: No. 7 Auburn
The Auburn offense last year was 98th in the nation and the defense won the games. Auburn has thus brought in an offense-savvy coordinator from Troy, Tony Franklin, but, alas, its defensive coordinator, Will Muschamp has departed for Texas. The impact that the new spread offense of Franklin will have on the team can be judged from the unexpected offensive Auburn stomping of Clemson in the Chick-fil-A Bowl to close out last season. But will the defense be able to keep up this year? SPRS ranked Auburn 26th to close out last season and we think they will have a hard time cracking the final top 10.
WEST VIRGINIA MOUNTAINEERS
Rivals.com Preseason Countdown: No. 8 West Virginia
SPRS ranked West Virginia the Number 1 team in the nation to close out the bowl season last year because of its absolute dominance of a terrific Oklahoma team in the Tostitos Fiesta Bow in a game marked however by some controversial Sooner coaching. The departure of Mountaineer head coach Rich Rodriguez might seem less significant in view of the fact that it was interim and now head coach Bill Stewart who guided the bowl victory from the sidelines, but Stewart's tenure as head coach of VMI 10 years previous was not marked by success. We do not think that the Mountaineers will be able to repeat their dominance of last year, especially with seven starters missing on defense. Indeed, we already see a potential loss at Colorado on September 18.
CLEMSON TIGERS
Rivals.com Preseason Countdown: No. 9 Clemson
Clemson disappointed greatly against Auburn to close out last season and thus ranked only 17th in the SPRS System. The Tigers have tremendous talent but head coach Tommy Bowden has yet to prove that this team has the ability to put it together when the chips are down. The season starts with a barnburner against Alabama in Atlanta.
LSU TIGERS
Rivals.com Preseason Countdown: No. 10 LSU
Louisiana State opens its season on August 30 in near storybook fashion as the reigning Division I-A (FBS) Champion hosts the reigning Division I-AA (FCS) threepeat Champion Appalachian State, which knocked off Michigan on the road 34-32 in the opening game last year. Although much of the country will surely be rooting for the Mountaineers to pull off another stunning upset, it is not likely to happen as the SPRS system makes LSU a 22.5 point favorite (calculated by the difference in rating +0.9 and -1.6 = 2.5 x 9 = 22.5). LSU will struggle this year because of the lack of an experienced QB, so Appalachian State - which features a spread no-huddle offense - might have a chance against the Tigers this early in the season. How head coach Les Miles and the team will master the loss of defensive coordinator Bo Pelini to Lincoln, Nebraska during the course of the season is another question. SPRS ranked LSU 4th at the end of last season, in spite of the national championship gifted to LSU by other rating systems. SPRS ranked Appalachian State 54th overall among all college teams, putting it on a par with Wisconsin and New Mexico. The Mountaineers are coached by Gerald Hundley ?Jerry? Moore, who in his formative years spent 5 years as a coach under Tom Osborne at Nebraska. That these are the ties that bind is shown by the 2008 Nebraska Football Coaches Clinic held in April of this year, which was touted as follows:
"The 2008 Nebraska Football Coaches Clinic will have rich flavor of some of the best college and high school coaches in the country. In addition to sessions with new Husker Head Coach Bo Pelini on Friday, College Football Hall of Fame Coach and current Nebraska Athletic Director Tom Osborne will lead a one-hour session on Saturday, April 5. Osborne, who led Nebraska to national titles in 1994, 1995 and 1997, will be followed by current Appalachian State Head Coach Jerry Moore, who led his team to its third straight Division I-AA national championship in 2007."
Excellence breeds excellence, as AD Tom Osborne is proving at Nebraska.
KANSAS JAYHAWKS
Rivals.com Preseason Countdown: No. 11 Kansas
Head coach Mark Mangino installed first-year offensive coordinator Ed Warinner's one-back, vertical-spread no-huddle offense last year and it helped lead QB Todd Reesing and Kansas to a super-Cinderella season, winning 12 games and the Orange Bowl. Kansas then added the NCAA basketball championship for an unbelievable year. It will be tougher this year as opponents will be much better prepared to face the Kansas offensive fire-power, but this team will continue to roll up impressive stats and wins, because of a super offense. SPRS ranked Kansas 5th last year.
BYU COUGARS
Rivals.com Preseason Countdown: No. 12 BYU
Nine offensive starters return from an 11-2 team whose head coach Bronco Mendenhall, a defensive specialist, has led the team to 22 wins in their last 26 games. BYU was the only team in the nation not to allow any opposing runner to achieve over 100 yards rushing in a single game, ranking 10th in total defense. Since only 3 defensive starters return, the quality of that defense is uncertain. SPRS ranked BYU 15th last year.
WISCONSIN BADGERS
Rivals.com Preseason Countdown: No. 13 Wisconsin
Wisconsin may have to struggle a bit this year. The quarterback position is unresolved and Wisconsin starts out Big 10 conference play with three consecutive games against Michigan, Ohio State and Penn State, a gauntlet no Big 10 team has ever faced before. Interesting too will be the season finale against Cal Poly, which SPRS ranked 137th last year. SPRS ranked Wisconsin 53rd at year's end for the 2007 /2008 season, on a par with Appalachian State and New Mexico.
TEXAS TECH RED RAIDERS
Rivals.com Preseason Countdown: No. 14 Texas Tech
Texas Tech generally leads the nation in passing and this season will be no exception. Red Raider fans expect a big year from the team due to stellar passing quarterback Graham Harrell and All-American wide receiver Michael Crabtree. Steps have also been taken to shore up what is usually a substantially weaker defense than offense. We will know more when the Raiders face Nebraska on October 11, a game which we think could go in the Huskers favor in an all-out offensive battle. SPRS ranked Texas Tech 10th at the end of last season.
TEXAS LONGHORNS
Rivals.com Preseason Countdown: No. 15 Texas
SPRS ranked Texas 14th at the end of last season but there is no way in our thinking to rank them behind Texas Tech to start this season. New defensive coordinator and linebacker coach Will Muschamp has been brought from Auburn by Mack Brown and signed for a salary making him the highest paid assistant coach in the Big 12. We think he will make a difference for Texas, who we expect to be in the Top 10 in the nation by the time the season is over. Indeed, they may even have a good crack at the national championship. Don't mess with Texas.
ARIZONA STATE SUN DEVILS
Rivals.com Preseason Countdown: No. 16 Arizona State
Head Coach Dennis Erickson put life back into the Arizona State football program last season, but Rome was not built in a day and reconstruction is still progressing. Arizona State was 2nd to last behind Notre Dame in allowing the most yards lost behind the line of scrimmage on offense, and that stat this year will be one indicator of how far the team has developed. SPRS ranked the Sun Devils at 22nd last year.
VIRGINIA TECH HOKIES
Rivals.com Preseason Countdown: No. 17 Virginia Tech
The Hokies are a team that wins on defense and their offense is nothing to write home about. Since there are only 4 starters returning on defense, this looks like a rebuilding year and we firmly expect Nebraska to beat Virginia Tech in Lincoln on September 27. SPRS ranked Virginia Tech at 18th last year.
ILLINOIS FIGHTING ILLINI
Rivals.com Preseason Countdown: No. 18 Illinois
The Fighting Illini had a fabulous year last year, notching up seven more wins than the year before, a tribute to the coaching skills of Ron Zook. SPRS ranked Illinois 23rd to close out last year.
TENNESSEE VOLUNTEERS
Rivals.com Preseason Countdown: No. 19 Tennessee
The Vols under head coach Phillip Fulmer might have the best team in the SEC this year if new offensive director Dave Clawson, former head coach at I-AA power Richmond, lives up to expectations, and if he does, he will probably be hired as a head coach somewhere in I-A college football the subsequent season, so look for the Volunteers to roll this year. SPRS ranked Tennessee only 28th last year, due to a worse-than-expected offense and a leaky defense.
SOUTH FLORIDA BULLS
Rivals.com Preseason Countdown: No. 20 USF
The Bulls started out tremendously last year to be ranked Number 2 in the polls, only to fade thereafter. USF plays Kansas on September 12 and then we will know how good either team is.
SPRS ranked South Florida 19th last year.
OREGON DUCKS
Rivals.com Preseason Countdown: No. 21 Oregon
The Ducks lost their QB last year, which may have cost them a shot at the national title.
SPRS ranked Oregon 16th at the end of last season. The biggest questionmark is at QB.
PENN STATE NITTANY LIONS
Rivals.com Preseason Countdown: No. 22 Penn State
Papa Joe Paterno will be in his 59th season as head coach or assistant coach at Penn State. Many starters on offense and defense are returning so that this team could be devastatingly good. SPRS ranked the Nittany Lions 24th at the end of last season.
FRESNO STATE BULLDOGS
Rivals.com Preseason Countdown: No. 23 Fresno State
SPRS ranked Fresno State 65th to close out the 2007 / 2008 season. The high ranking by Rivals.com is puzzling in view of the fact that the Bulldogs outstanding offensive coordinator Jim McElwain departed for Alabama this year. Or it is a recognition of the outstanding word done by head coach Pat Hill in turning the team around from a 4-8 season in 2006.
WAKE FOREST DEMON DEACONS
Rivals.com Preseason Countdown: No. 24 Wake Forest
Over past years an opportunistic defense has been hampered by a conservative offense, which is scheduled for a modern upgrade this year. SPRS ranked Wake Forest 35th last season.
PITTSBURGH PANTHERS
Rivals.com Preseason Countdown: No. 25 Pittsburgh
SPRS ranked the Panthers 45th last season, even though Pitt closed out their season last year by upsetting West Virginia 13-9. Pittsburgh lost seven games last year. Will they make it into the top 25 this year? We certainly are rooting for them, as we spent some time in Pittsburgh during a college summer and are avid Steeler fans to boot.
CINCINNATI BEARCATS
Rivals.com Preseason Countdown: No. 26 Cincinnati
Brian Kelly is a top coach and the Bearcats may be on their way to becoming a Kelly-style offensive juggernaut reminiscent of his days at Grand Valley State. SPRS ranked Cincinnati 27th last year. We look for a top 20 ranking this year. We will know how good this Cincinnati team is on September 6 when they play Oklahoma on the road. The Sooners had better look out.
SOUTH CAROLINA GAMECOCKS
Rivals.com Preseason Countdown: No. 27 South Carolina
Steve Spurrier may be a good coach, but he has a lot of improving to do as far as the running game is concerned. Last year South Carolina was last in the SEC both offensively and defensively as far as the rush was concerned. You can't be top with a passing game only. That is Spurrier's Achilles heel. SPRS ranked South Carolina 36th last year.
UTAH UTES
Rivals.com Preseason Countdown: No. 28 Utah
How good is Utah? They have won 7 bowl games straight, a record topped only by the Eagles of Boston College with 8, but, of course, not always against top-ranked competition. SPRS ranked Utah 40th last year. The Utes open their season at Michigan and we think that looks like a win for the Wolverines.
ALABAMA CRIMSON TIDE
Rivals.com Preseason Countdown: No. 29 Alabama
Head coach Nick Saban, though Alabama is ranked 29th by Rivals.com to start this season, has according to that same source, "hauled in the nation's top recruiting class" and has also made some important coaching changes, bringing in new offensive coordinator Jim McElwain from Fresno State, where he last year increased point production by 10 points per game. Highly-rated Clemson may have trouble in the season opener against 'Bama in Atlanta. SPRS ranked Alabama 47th to close out the 2007 /2008 season, but they should be much improved this year.
MICHIGAN WOLVERINES
Rivals.com Preseason Countdown: No. 30 Michigan
The Michigan Wolverines at 30th? SPRS ranked Michigan at 29th to close out the season last year. There is no doubt that things are happening at Michigan. Not only is top head coach Rich Rodriguez from an extremely strong West Virginia team last year now new in Ann Arbor, but he has lured Scott Shafer away from Stanford - how that? where for one year Shafer did amazing work as the Cardinal's defensive coordinator and assistant head coach: "Schafer's defense played a huge role in orchestrating one of the biggest upsets in college football history last season when the 41-point underdog Cardinal won at No. 2 USC, 24-23." Not all players on the Michigan team are enamored of the changing of the guard, as 11 players with eligibility have left. New brooms sweep clean. We definitely think that Michigan will be a force to be reckoned with this year, simply because of all the talent that the Wolverines always have at their disposal. 30th? No way. Michigan will surely be near the top 10 at season's end.
CALIFORNIA BEARS
Rivals.com Preseason Countdown: No. 31 Cal
Cal started out last year like a champion, even ranked Nr. 2, and then faded into oblivion, losing 6 of its last 7 games, although SPRS still ranked this statistically fine team 21st to close out last year, whereas most rating services had them much further down their lists. Up to now, head coach Jeff Tedford has called the plays, and his playcalling has been controversial, but this season new offensive coordinator Frank Cignetti (Jr.) from the San Francisco 49ers will call the plays. We think this will make a difference, but we do not know yet in which direction in the rankings. Only time will tell.
MICHIGAN STATE SPARTANS
Rivals.com Preseason Countdown: No. 32 Michigan State
We have been appreciative fans of Spartan basketball over the years but seldom football, for its lack of disciple on the field. New head coach Mark Dantonio set a new disciplined direction last year, but it may take a couple of years for him to get and train the kind of players he needs.
TCU HORNED FROGS
Rivals.com Preseason Countdown: No. 33 Texas Christian
Texas Christian football has always been a bit of a puzzle to this observer, sometimes hinting at greatness but never achieving it. Maybe head coach Gary Patterson has just been too conservative for this to happen, running the ball more than half the time, or maybe the season schedules have just been too easy to obtain top respect. Certainly the season and bowl records are generally excellent, but there always seem to be some poor seasons inbetween the good ones. Last year SPRS ranked TCU 55th, as the defense was as good as any, but the offense was not top. TCU hopes this will change this year, although its first game is against New Mexico, a team with a stalwart defense that TCU will have a tough time to crack.
COLORADO BUFFALOES
Rivals.com Preseason Countdown: No. 34 Colorado
Dan Hawkins is a top coach and his rebuilding of the Colorado Buffaloes is continuing apace, with a 6-7 record last year following a more-or-less expected 2-10 downturn the year before because of severe internal problems inherited from the previous era (see the blog comments here). Getting rid of the past is difficult, as 20 freshmen played last year. This year the Buffs face the normal tough Big 12 competition and have rough non-conference matches against West Virginia and Florida State. If the Buffs emerge from this year with a winning record, Hawkins will be on his way. Last year, SPRS ranked Colorado 77th, with lots of work still to be done, especially on the defense.
BOISE STATE BRONCOS
Rivals.com Preseason Countdown: No. 35 Boise State
Since the year 2000, Boise State is, on average, the highest scoring team in the nation. Nevertheless, the Broncos surprised nearly everyone by losing 41-38 to East Carolina in the Sheraton Hawaii Bowl to finish off last season on a sour note, a result explained perhaps by a lack of concentration for being in Hawaii rather than in Idaho in the wintertime. SPRS ranked Boise State 56th and East Carolina 78th, so that the difference between the two teams was not as great as thought in some quarters. Ian Johnson returns, and if he remains healthy, Boise State will continue to have a powerful offense, although the defense needs some work.
OREGON STATE BEAVERS
Rivals.com Preseason Countdown: No. 36 Oregon State
SPRS ranked Oregon State at 25th last year, about 10 spots lower than most ratings, because the Beavers had a top class rushing defense, leading the nation in defense against the run, for example, holding Stanford to -8 yards rushing. Also, they held USC to only 100 yards rushing but were beaten in the air and had no offense to put up to counter that, and lost 24-3. Since the entire front seven were lost to graduation and since the sputtering offensive machine has not been improved, we do not look to find the Beavers in great contention this year.
FLORIDA STATE SEMINOLES
Rivals.com Preseason Countdown: No. 37 Florida State
Seminole Coach Bobby Bowden, currently ranking 1 game ahead of Penn State's Joe Paterno 373-372 on the all-time win list for Division I-A coaches, but he has had better years than the last ones, coming off of successive 7-6 seasons. SPRS ranked Florida State 38th last year, a ranking which derived from merely average performance on both offense and defense. The Seminoles lost 12 starters to graduation so that they are probably lucky to open the season with two straight games against Division I-AA (FCS) opponents Western Carolina and Chattanooga, although those games are sometimes harder to win than Division I-A games because the Division I-AA opponent is highly motivated to play its heart out for the unlikely upset win.
PURDUE BOILERMAKERS
Rivals.com Preseason Countdown: No. 38 Purdue
The Boilermakers had perhaps the best offense statistically in the Big 10 last year, but suffered from a traditional weakness, a lackadaisical running game, that hurt them in crucial situations. SPRS ranked Purdue 58th last year and it may not get better this year, as a strong schedule could easily hand Purdue more than the 5 losses they had last year, even if they play well. One has to hope for some luck and a good year, as head coach Joe Tiller is to retire at the end of this season. The players should remember that the Boilermakers were once called "cornfield sailors, blacksmiths, pumpkin shuckers, hayseeds, farmers and rail splitters" and that the colors of gold and black were chosen in honor of Princeton University, who in 1869 played against Rutgers in the first ever college football game.
RUTGERS SCARLET KNIGHTS
Rivals.com Preseason Countdown: No. 39 Rutgers
Speaking of Rutgers, the Scarlet Knights under head coach Greg Schiano have returned to the old days of greatness and are fielding superb football teams. SPRS ranked Rutgers 20th at the end of last season, and it is hard to understand that they could have lost 5 games. Led by a superb coach in Greg Schiano, the Scarlet Knights last year, as written at Rivals.com became "the first offense in NCAA history to feature a 3,000-yard passer, a 2,000-yard rusher and two 1,000-yard receivers." That can't happen without some very sound offensive coaching, at Rutgers in the person of coordinator John McNulty.
NOTRE DAME FIGHTING IRISH
Rivals.com Preseason Countdown: No. 40 Notre Dame
Notre Dame has such a vaunted tradition in college football that its reputation often exceeds its modern possibilities, so that it has often recently been selected for bowl games where it stands no real chance of winning. This probably explains the fact that the Fighting Irish in 2007 set a college football record of nine straight bowl game losses. Last season a bowl game was not an issue as the Irish went 3-9 allowing more sacks than any other team in the country. How is that possible for such a storied program? Notre Dame fortunes have taken a severe downspin ever since Lou Holtz, who had a lifetime contract, left the team suddenly for undisclosed reasons in 1996. Were and are internal university politics the reason for the decline of the Irish? Broadway Joe asks whether it was because of the possible raising of admission requirements. Who knows.
MIAMI HURRICANES
Rivals.com Preseason Countdown: No. 41 Miami of Florida
The Hurricanes closed out their season with an ignominious 48-0 shellacking at the hands of Virginia at (not in) the Orange Bowl and the offense was next to non-existent the second half of the year, with the defense even more woeful. The Hurricanes have brought in new defensive coordinator Bill Young from Kansas, which could be a big loss for Kansas and a big gain for Miami. One must presume that there is no way to go but up. SPRS ranked Miami of Florida 73rd last year.
OKLAHOMA STATE COWBOYS
Rivals.com Preseason Countdown: No. 42 Oklahoma State
Offensive coordinator Larry Fedora, whose Cowboys had the nation's 7th ranked offense last year, has left for Southern Miss, so we are somewhat puzzled by the high rankings given by some to Oklahoma State in the preseason. SPRS ranked the Oklahoma State 31st last year, but the defense was suspect. We do not see the Cowboys improving on that rating this year.
UCLA BRUINS
Rivals.com Preseason Countdown: No. 43 UCLA
The big news at UCLA is that Norm Chow, a consummate quarterbacks coach, has joined the Bruins as offensive coordinator. That kind of a change was essential, as UCLA had a great defense but a miserable offense last year. SPRS ranked UCLA 39th last year, so that we think that the Bruins will hit a higher rating than that this year and might even crack into the Top 25 if the offense jells under Chow's tutelage. UCLA's schedule opens with games against two top teams, Tennessee and BYU, and that will provide some idea as to the offensive progress made.
BOSTON COLLEGE EAGLES
Rivals.com Preseason Countdown: No. 44 Boston College
This ranking is one of the most puzzling at Rivals.com. SPRS ranked Boston College 12th at the end of last season, and they lost only 3 starters from the superb defense that was, in spite of a superb offense, an essential component of their very successful season under first-year head coach Jeff Jagodzinski, so that we expect the Eagles again to be a high-ranked team this year. This is traditionally a team with a lot of talent that finds enough people able to run, throw and catch the ball, and to offensively protect those who do. Hail Mary.
NEBRASKA CORNHUSKERS
Rivals.com Preseason Countdown: No. 45 Nebraska
With Tom Osborne as AD and Bo Pelini as Head Coach of the Big Red, plus a whole bevy of new and coaches, e.g. Tim Beck from Kansas, inspired by traditional Husker values such as effort, we are sure that the Cornhuskers are back, and find the analysis at Sunday Morning Quarterback to be on point. Take a look there.
As Osborne has been quoted to say: "I guess what I'm hoping for is that we see a team that is well-organized, plays with a lot of heart, gives great effort and is well-prepared," Osborne told The Associated Press. "After that, you have to live with the consequences." That last sentence applies especially also to Husker opponents. We are hoping for QB Joe Ganz to set passing records at Nebraska this season and we trust for the defense to return to the energized play that the Blackshirts once earned for this storied football program. Osborne says that things will change in "three or four years", being sensibly conservative, but we think some great changes will already occur this season. As a Husker alum, we realize that no one can win all the time, but you can be competitive all the time, and, win or lose, that is the major initial objective this season. To walk off the field with your head held high, regardless of the score. That is the spirit of the game and the true heartbeat of all sports.
LOUISVILLE CARDINALS
Rivals.com Preseason Countdown: No. 46 Louisville
Bobby Petrino had developed Louisville into a high-powered offensive machine, but Steve Kragthorpe from Tulsa last year inherited numerous problems, not only on offense, but particularly on defense, which was one of the worst in Division I-A (FBS) football. In the interim, both coordinators have been replaced, as Jeff Brohm will institute a Petrino-type offense, and Ron English, who earned awards at Michigan in the same coaching position, takes over the leaky defense. SPRS ranked Louisville 66th last year, which should definitely improve this year.
NORTH CAROLINA TAR HEELS
Rivals.com Preseason Countdown: No. 47 North Carolina
Butch Davis played 28 sophomores last year, so that the younger players are getting plenty of playing time in his rebuilding of Tar Heel fortunes. This year, the scheduler has granted a welcome blessing, by leaving the prognosticated three best teams, Clemson, Wake Forest and Florida State off the North Carolina ACC schedule, which could grant the Tar Heels a winning season after last year's tough 4-8 year. SPRS ranked North Carolina 68th last year, with equally balanced offensive and defensive teams.
MISSISSIPPI STATE BULLDOGS
Rivals.com Preseason Countdown: No. 48 Mississippi State
SPRS ranked Mississippi State 63rd last year, even though the Bulldogs went 8-5 and beat UCF in the Liberty Bowl, turning around their previous season when they went 3-9. The Bulldogs had a good defense combined with a below sub-par offense and on average they actually gave up more yards per play than they gained themselves, which is not the hallmark of a strong team by any means. Improvement upon the past season this year will be very difficult.
CENTRAL MICHIGAN
Rivals.com Preseason Countdown: No. 49 Central Michigan
Central Michigan is known for its strong offense, but weak defense was the downfall of the Chippewas last year, ranked 91st by SPRS in spite of an 8-6 season, but including, for example, a 70-14 destruction by Clemson and a 52-7 drubbing by Kansas. The closing 51-48 loss to Purdue last year shows where the gaping problems are to be found.
CONNECTICUT HUSKIES
Rivals.com Preseason Countdown: No. 50 Connecticut
SPRS ranked Connecticut 64th last year. The Huskies are a solid team with good balance between the offense and defense, but the I-attack lacks a vertical passing game, and the Huskies thus are seldom sudden long-touchdown threats, but have to grind out the yardage if they can. The team is very successful given its rather thin talent base. Head coach Randy Edsall is a protégé of Tom Coughlin of Waterloo, New York and the Super Bowl Champion New York Giants.
WASHINGTON HUSKIES
Rivals.com Preseason Countdown: No. 51 Washington
Head coach Tyrone Willingham seems to get the job done recruiting but seems to have difficulty turning talent into performance on the field. SPRS ranked the Huskies 86th last year, as Washington gave up one-half yard more per play than they gained. Such a statistic points to serious problems in both offensive and defensive coordination.
TULSA GOLDEN HURRICANE
Rivals.com Preseason Countdown: No. 52 Tulsa
SPRS ranked Tulsa 49th last year, but we expected better, and were appalled at the weakness of the defense. How many yards will Tulsa roll up this year, with nine returning starters, but a new QB? It will be tons, maybe even more than last year when the Golden Hurricane led the nation. And the defense? It can hardly get worse. Illustrative of the potential that slumbers in the Gus Malzahn offense is the 63-7 annihilation of Bowling Green in the GMAC Bowl to close out the season, a Falcon team that beat Big 10 Minnesota 32-31 and otherwise lost only four games. Even a top 10 team sporting merely a weak offense, who could not match Tulsa TD for TD, would have to be in fear of Tulsa's offensive prowess. We continue to be amazed that no one has hired Malzahn as a head coach at the college level. Athletic Directors and University Presidents, what gives? Do you not want your football team to be successful? Do you not recognize great coaching talent when you see it? As written at the Wikipedia: "In Malzahn's first season, Tulsa became the first team in NCAA history to have a 5,000-yard passer, 1,000-yard rusher and three 1,000-yard receivers." That does not happen by accident, nor does it happen that easily at a school like Tulsa, which does not - yet - have access to top recruit talent. So how did they do it? That's coaching, folks, and that is why Arkansas, with loads more talent, is ranked below Tulsa in the Preseason Countdown at Rivals.com. See also Scout.com 2008 preview.
UNIVERSITY OF MARYLAND TERRAPINS
Rivals.com Preseason Countdown: No. 53 Maryland
SPRS ranked Maryland 72nd last year and the team still appears to have quarterback uncertainties, but whoever wins the job, nine offensive starters return from a unit that was, however, not that strong last year. When you throw more interceptions than touchdown passes, you know you have a QB problem. Last year, Maryland lost seven games and almost all of those were lost by one touchdown or less. To get those games in the winning column you have to make serious changes in the offense.
ARKANSAS RAZORBACKS
Rivals.com Preseason Countdown: No. 54 Arkansas
SPRS ranked Arkansas 11th in the nation last year. Let's get this straight. Rivals.com takes a team that knocked off the allegedly Number 1 team LSU in their last regular-season game last year 50-48, and also during the regular season lost to Alabama by only 3 and to Auburn by only 2, and they are now ranked 54th? Sure, the 38-7 drubbing by Missouri in the Cotton Bowl at season-end was humbling, but it was under an interim coach after the unexpected departure of Houston Nutt to Mississippi. New head coach Bobby Petrino, fleeing the Atlanta Falcons and the Vick scandal and formerly a very successful college coach at Louisville, could potentially raise Razorback fortunes this season if he can find a suitable quarterback, and indeed, what many though to be unlikely, Casey Dick may in fact prosper under the new wide-open spread offense of Petrino. That remains to be seen. We as Athletic Director would have hired Gus Malzahn, who also applied for the head coaching job, so it will be interesting to see how Petrino fares.
Read the rest of the Rivals.com College Football Preseason Countdown boomark / email).
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