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College Football Team Performance in the 2007/2008 Season Bowl Games

By Andis Kaulins

College Football Bowl Game Wins 2007/2008 Analyzed
by the SportPundit Football Ranking System (SPRS System")

As a general rule, if we compare two teams in terms of their total net yards average per play, a 1-point net advantage (NAYPPA) by one team is equal to about 9 points on the scoreboard. In the 2007/2008 football bowl games, when the total net yards per play advantage dropped to below 1, then no bowl team, except in the game between Georgia and Hawaii, won by more than 7 points. That's for a total of 14 games of 32 played.

If the net difference in average yards per play was no greater than 1/2 point (0.5) on either side of 0, the average difference on the scoreboard was 4.6 points, so that we can conclude that 1 point difference in average yards per play is about 9 points.

If the difference in average yards per play was between 1/2 points and 1 1/2 points on either side of 0, the average difference on the scoreboard was 11 points, a bit more than the expected 9 points.

If the difference in average yards per play was between 1 1/2 points and 2 1/2 points on either side of 0, the average difference on the scoreboard was 18.4 points, so that we can conclude that 2 points difference in average yards per play is about 18 points.

If the NAYPPA was over 2 1/2 points, the average difference on the scoreboard was 27 points.

So as a rule of thumb in assessing the difference in average yards per play between two teams:

1 point of net difference in average yards per play = 9 points on the scoreboard
2 points of net difference in average yards per play = 18 points on the scoreboard
3 points of net difference in average yards per play = 27 points on the scoreboard

These stats indicate clearly that the SportPundit Football Ranking System (SPFR System) is useful. It is a tool whereby the dominance of teams - independent of the vagaries which come into play in final football scoreboard scores (turnovers, etc.) - can be assessed. This permits a ranking of the 2007/2008 bowl games in terms of dominance.

The following ranking in no way supports a subsequent elevation of LSU as the top team in the country or Georgia as number 2.

The LSU win over Ohio State was the least dominant of any of the 32 bowl games. In fact, Ohio State averaged 2-yards more per play than LSU - a substantial difference in team dominance, so that LSU won its game on the turnovers and breaks going its way - against the more dominant team. The Georgia win over Hawaii was only the 17th most dominant game, buoyed by Rainbow turnovers. Disregarding the superlative New Mexico win over Nevada, in which the Lobos played like one of the best teams in the country, the stupendous win of West Virginia over Oklahoma, in which the Mountaineers averaged 9.1 yards per offensive play, clearly should have propelled West Virginia into position number one in the national rankings.

The Georgia win over Hawaii ranked only 17th of 32 in terms of our NAYPPA analysis. Here are the Bowl Game results in terms of net difference in yards per play, which shows that the most impressive game among ranked team was in fact played by West Virginia.

1. New Mexico 23 Nevada 0
Total Net Yards average per Play - Advantage 7.1 to 3.4 for New Mexico = +3.7

2. West Virginia 48 Oklahoma 28
Total Net Yards Average per Play - Advantage 9.1 to 5.5 for West Virginia = +3.6

3. Oregon 56 South Florida (USF) 21
Total Net Yards Average per Play - Advantage 7.3 to 4.0 for Oregon = +3.3

4. California 42 Air Force 36
Total Net Yards Average per Play - Advantage 8.3 to 5.2 for California = +3.1

5. Rutgers 52 Ball State 30
Total Net Yards Average per Play - Advantage 8.9 to 5.8 for Rutgers= +3.1

6. Tulsa 63 Bowling Green 7
Total Net Yards average per Play - Advantage 6.5 to 3.8 for Tulsa = +2.7

7. Fresno State 40 Georgia Tech 28
Total Net Yards Average per Play - Advantage 7.8 to 5.3 for Fresno State = +2.5

8. Missouri 38 Arkansas 7
Total Net Yards Average per Play - Advantage 6.4 to 4.3 for Missouri = +2.1

9. Wake Forest 24 Connecticut 10
Total Net Yards Average per Play - Advantage 5.6 to 3.6 for Wake Forest = +2.0

10. Florida Atlantic 44 Memphis 27
Total Net Yards Average per Play - Advantage 7.0 to 5.1 for Florida Atlantic= +1.9

11. USC 49 Illinois 17
Total Net Yards Average per Play - Advantage 7.8 to 6.1 for USC = +1.7

12. Purdue 51 Central Michigan 48
Total Net Yards Average per Play - Advantage 7.2 to 5.5 for Purdue = +1.7

13. Texas 52 Arizona State 34
Total Net Yards Average per Play - Advantage 5.5 to 4.2 for Texas = +1.3

14. East Carolina 41 Boise State 38
Total Net Yards average per Play - Advantage 6.6 to 5.4 for East Carolina = +1.2

15. Oklahoma State 49 Indiana 33
Total Net Yards Average per Play - Advantage 6.2 to 5.2 for Oklahoma State = +1.0

16. Cincinnati 31 Southern Miss 21
Total Net Yards Average per Play - Advantage 5.2 to 4.2 for Cincinnati = +1.0

17. Georgia 41 Hawaii 10
Total Net Yards Average per Play - Advantage 5.0 to 4.1 for Georgia = +0.9

18. Oregon State 21 Maryland 14
Total Net Yards Average per Play - Advantage 5.0 to 4.1 for Oregon State= +0.9

19. Penn State 24 Texas A&M 17
Total Net Yards Average per Play - Advantage 5.7 to 4.8 for Penn State = +0.9

20. Tennessee 21 Wisconsin 17
Total Net Yards Average per Play - Advantage 6.0 to 5.3 for Tennessee = +0.7

21. Auburn 23 Clemson 20 (in overtime - 1OT)
Total Net Yards Average per Play - Advantage 4.7 to 4.0 for Auburn = +0.7

22. Kansas 24 Virginia Tech 21
Total Net Yards Average per Play - Advantage 4.6 to 4.2 for Kansas = +0.4

23. Texas Tech 31 Virginia 28
Total Net Yards Average per Play - Advantage 5.0 to 4.6 for Texas Tech = +0.4

24. Mississippi State 10 UCF 3
Total Net Yards Average per Play - Advantage 3.3 to 3.1 for Mississippi State = +0.2

25. Utah 35 Navy 32
Total Net Yards Average per Play - Advantage 6.3 to 6.1 for Utah = +0.2

26. Michigan 41 Florida 35
Total Net Yards Average per Play - Advantage 6.1 to 6.0 for Michigan = +0.1

27. BYU 17 UCLA 16
Total Net Yards Average per Play - Even 4.2 to 4.2 = +0.0

28. Kentucky 35 Florida State 28
Total Net Yards Average per Play - Even 5.8 to 5.8 = +0.0

29. TCU 20 Houston 13
Total Net Yards Average per Play - Advantage 5.3 to 5.4 for Houston = -0.1

30. Alabama 30 Colorado 24
Total Net Yards Average per Play - Advantage 5.6 to 5.8 for Colorado= -0.2

31. Boston College 24 Michigan State 21
Total Net Yards Average per Play - Advantage 3.6 to 4.0 for Michigan State = -0.4

32. LSU 38 Ohio State 24
Total Net Yards Average per Play - Advantage 4.3 to 6.3 for Ohio State (!) = -2.0

Full post as published by LawPundit on January 15, 2008 (boomark / email).