Legal Commentary

USAToday/Gallup Poll: McCain By 4 Among "LVs"

By Big Tent Democrat

Here is a poll to tell me I am wrong that Obama is a shoo-in:

Republican presidential candidate John McCain moved from being behind by 6 points among "likely" voters a month ago to a 4-point lead over Democrat Barack Obama among that group in the latest USA TODAY/Gallup Poll. McCain still trails slightly among the broader universe of "registered" voters. By both measures, the race is tight. The Friday-Sunday poll, mostly conducted as Obama was returning from his much-publicized overseas trip and released just this hour, shows McCain now ahead 49%-45% among voters that Gallup believes are most likely to go to the polls in November. In late June, he was behind among likely voters, 50%-44%.

Among registered voters, McCain still trails Obama, but by less. He is behind by 3 percentage points in the new poll (47%-44%) vs. a 6-point disadvantage (48%-42%) in late June.

More . . .

Likely voter models this far out are crap imo. And Gallup's Frank Newport agrees with me -- "Gallup editor Frank Newport tells Jill that "registered voters are much more important at the moment," because Election Day is still 100 days away. . ." but that still does not explain how Gallup's tracker has Obama by 8 and a poll in the field the same 3 days has Obama up 3. Moral of the story - all polls stink. and Obama is still a shoo in, imo of course.

By Big Tent Democrat, speaking for me only

Full post as published by TalkLeft on July 28, 2008 (boomark / email).