Legal Commentary

"Most popular politician in the country," a hockey mom from Alaska, is indeed in "the realm of the possible" as McCain's Veep choice

By Beldar

It's not quite all-Palin all-the-time at BeldarBlog, but I'll forgive you if you draw that conclusion. I'm as hungry for inspiration as anyone else who's planning on voting for McCain next fall, so the natural subject on which to seek inspiration is his pending choice of a running mate.

Apropos of which,  from today's WaPo Politics Blog, "The Fix," comes this analysis as part of the Friday Veepstakes Line:

McCain's choice is whether to throw a "short pass" or a "Hail Mary."

The short pass candidates are people that McCain is personally close to or would fit an obvious need for him. Choosing a "short pass" candidate would be a signal that McCain believes he can win this race without fundamentally altering its current dynamic. Among the "short pass" names are: Govs. Tim Pawlenty of Minnesota and Charlie Crist of Florida, former governor Mitt Romney of Massachusetts, former Rep. Rob Portman of Ohio and South Dakota Sen. John Thune.

The "Hail Mary" option would suggest that McCain believes that he has to shake up the race with an entirely unexpected and unorthodox choice that would carry great reward and great risk. It's the opposite of a safe pick. Among that group: Govs. Bobby Jindal of Louisiana and Sarah Palin of Alaska.

Columnist/blogger Chris Cillizza goes on to handicap both the Veepstake races thusly (with each number one ranking representing his view of the current most likely pick):

DEMs: (5) Hillary. (4) Slow Joe Biden (D-DE). (3) Sen. Jack Reed. (Who? Oh, yeah, the senior senator from Rhode Island, who's accompanying The Chosen One and erstwhile GOP straight man/clown Chuck Hagel to Iraq and Afghanistan.) (2) Gov. Tim Kaine (D-VA). (1) Sen. Evan Bayh (D-IN) (my Dem Veep-nominee prediction from last year).

GOP: (5) Alaska Gov. Sarah Palin (yay!). (4) Sen. John Thune (R-S.D.). (3) Former Rep. Rob Portman (R-OH). (2) Gov. Tim Pawlenty (R-MN). (1) Former Gov. Mitt Romney (R-MA).

Further on Gov. Palin, who's new to his lists this week, Cillizza writes (boldface mine):

Palin's name doesn't appear on many vice presidential lists but if you believe that McCain needs to make a totally out of the box choice, she fits the bill. Palin, elected in 2006 on a reform platform, may well be the most popular politician in the country, and her story ? former high school basketball star and beauty queen, mother of five including a newborn with Down's Syndrome ? is the sort of narrative American voters could fall in love with. Plus, picking Palin would send a message to disaffected Democratic-leaning women that McCain is paying more than lip service to the notion of changing the face of the Republican party. (Previous ranking: N/A)

The main problem I have with Cillizza's analysis is the "Hail Mary" metaphor ? a sports analogy that refers to a game-ending play required by desperate circumstances, and hence a play that actually is quite predictable. I agree that McCain has to "shake up the race," and that he "can[not] win this race without fundamentally altering its current dynamic," but I don't agree that choosing Gov. Palin would carry "great risk." Instead:

• Where she's objectively weak ? lack of decades of experience, lack of foreign policy experience ? McCain himself is overwhelmingly strong already.

• Where they dove-tail ? as fiscal conservatives, and as self-styled reformers and mavericks unafraid to take on established interests within their own party ? they're likely to find very receptive audiences. By pairing her own record with his, they would have a powerful rebuttal to the "McSame" label that Obama needs to pin on McCain.

• Where he's objectively weak ? lack of executive experience (running something larger than his own campaign or a naval aviation squadron), lack of trust among movement conservatives, and most of all, lack of excitement to counter Obamamania ? Palin is objectively strong.

McCain doesn't need a gravitas transfusion, and he can certainly hold up his end on foreign policy. On those counts, McCain himself can outmatch both Obama and whatever reassuring figure Obama picks as his own Veep nominee. But McCain desperately needs a connection to both younger and more jaded voters who are likely to simply tune him and his entire campaign out altogether ? regardless of its policy content or his personal character. And Gov. Palin could and should become their joint campaign's voice ? an overwhelming positive, enthusiastic, and knowledgeable voice, from a personal background that both figuratively and quite literally represents the future ? on what's likely to be the number one domestic issue this November: the price at nations' gas pumps in particular, and its energy policy in general.

I'm glad that MSM outlets like the WaPo are adding to the Palin buzz, as is my home-state senator John Cornyn (who recently included a Palin op-ed on energy and ANWR on his own campaign blog). But I'm even more heartened to see that Gov. Palin is shown aboard the McCain campaign bus, amidst other speculated GOP Veep nominees, in JibJab's new video, Time for Some Campaignin'. (I also love Obama riding the pretty unicorn over the Rainbow of Change.)

When asked about her Veep prospects last week at the National Governors' Association convention, Gov. Palin didn't exactly deny that she's received inquiries from the McCain campaign, but she brushed off the reporter's inquiries with a rhetorical question (ellipsis in original):

AK Gov. Sarah Palin (R): ?I can?t say that I?m on the short list. They, the officials in the campaign, haven?t told me I?m on any short list. ? I really doubt that such a thing would happen. Gotta keep this in perspective: I?m a hockey mom from Alaska. Do you really think that it is even in the realm of possibility??

Palin also says she invited McCain to visit ANWR.

Not all long bombs are Hail Marys, where your best hope is a prayer and a lot of luck. Sometimes you throw the bomb, the unexpected and unconventional long pass, all the way down the field even when it's not the fourth quarter and even if you're not behind. Sometimes you do it precisely because it's unexpected, maybe on a first-down from mid-field in the second quarter, because you believe it's the best way to score. Picking Palin would not be desperate politics; rather, in this context, for this campaign, it would be smart and aggressive politics.

McCain picking Palin is indeed in the realm of the possible. But better yet, it's in the realm of the genuinely inspirational.

Full post as published by BeldarBlog on July 18, 2008 (boomark / email).