Legal Commentary

Looking Ahead To South Carolina For The Dems

By Big Tent Democrat

After losing Nevada handily yesterday to Hillary Clinton, Barack Obama is no doubt very happy to be competing in South Carolina this week. That primary is next Saturday, January 26, and Obama is heavily favored holding double digit leads in most polls.

The chances of Obama losing in South Carolina seem almost nonexistent. He has completely solidified his support in the African American community, which will comprise half of the electorate. Obama will win African Americans by 4-1 over Clinton, which will get him to 40% on that vote alone.

But there is a pitfall for Obama. In the last two primaries, he has been drubbed by Clinton among Democratic voters. If South Carolina is close and Obama's victory is solely fueled by overwhelming support by African Americans, Obama risks getting a label he has fought hard to avoid - that he is the black candidate. It would be an entirely unfair label, but it could be attached to him.

More . . .

Already, as Steve Soto noted, the Media is eager to discern "ethnic tensions" among Democrats, and the Nevada results fueled that talk. The label would be completely unfair as would the talk of ethnic tensions. Obama has run remarkably well among non-African Americans, considering he is running against a heavily favored experienced politician carrying the name of the most popular Democrat in the nation. But fairness often has nothing to do with politics, and the risk for Obama remains.

For Democrats, an Obama win with stronger than expected results for him among non-African Americans and a WEAKER than expected showing among African Americans would be the best result. It would demonstrate that ethnic tensions are not running rampant in the Democratic Party.

And for the record, I do not believe ethnic tensions are more prominent as a result of this campaign. Voting for Obama as a matter of ethnic or racial pride is NOT evidence of ethnic tension. Women voting for a woman candidate in gender solidarity is not a sign of tension. Latinos voting for a candidate with a proven record of support for Latinos is NOT a vote against an African American.

This race is great for Democrats, as we are about to make history, nominating for the first time either a woman or an African American for the Presidency. There is nothing the Media can do to change that

Full post as published by TalkLeft on January 20, 2008 (boomark / email).