Legal Commentary

About The Puerto Rico Turnout

By Big Tent Democrat

When I predicted 500,000 voters voting today in Puerto Rico before (and it looks like the number will be somewhat lower than that), I noticed that no one discussing what turnout would be in Puerto Rico the most important variable - that Puerto Rico is a machine/patronage jurisdiction. Turnout is almost completely driven by the party machinery of the two main parties - the statehood New Progressive Party (PNP by its Spanish acronym) and the Commonwealth Popular Democratic Party (PDP by its Spanish acronym). The statehood party in particular has an incredible get out the vote machine. And the Commonwealth Party also has a strong get out the vote machine.

So what happened in this election? Two things. First, the Commonwealth Party is led by a dead politician walking, the indicted Governor Anibal Acevedo Vila. Second, the statehood party is led by a Republican supporter of John McCain Luis Fortuno, its gubernatorial candidate. (The strong Hillary supporter and former governor Pedro Rossello lost in a primary to Fortuno for the nomination.) [More...]

So the two political get out the vote machines in Puerto Rico simply were not put into play in this election. Without them, it was simply impossible to envision even a million voters, much less the outlandish estimates some were predicting. Today's turnout was predictable, if you knew something about Puerto Rico politics. In a way, it is rather impressive turnout, as there really are no real Democrats or Republicans in Puerto Rico.

By Big Tent Democrat

Full post as published by TalkLeft on June 01, 2008 (boomark / email).