International Law

China Econ Growth and Asia

By Stan

Yet another fun post by Pettis, this one on China’s growth relative to other Asian countries. Pettis is looking primarily at data since 1949. China’s phenomenal recent growth rates look a little different from a comparative perspective when you look, for example, at countries like Japan, S. Korea and Hong Kong, as opposed to Thailand, Indonesia and the Philippines. For the former group, China does not yet stack up despite the past 20 years, but for the latter, a much more favorable picture. It all depends on from where you start your analysis.

Pettis ends with a comment about what the future will bring. Obviously these kinds of growth rates cannot be sustained forever. He also reminds us that China’s dependency ratio will deteriorate in the out years (2010 or thereabouts). That being said, I believe that Japan’s situation in that regard is even worse, so perhaps China can still make up significant ground against Japan even as its population ages.

This is pretty wonky macro stuff, but not at all technical. Enjoy.

Full post as published by China Hearsay on May 28, 2008 (boomark / email).