Legal Commentary

Number Crunching With Past Five Elections as a Guide

By Jeralyn

Here's some more number crunching I just received from a Talkleft reader as to electability in November, based on the past five Presidential Elections...

• There are FIVE "BELLWETHER STATES". These are states who have voted for the WINNER in ALL FIVE of the most recent Presidential elections. They are: Arkansas, Missouri, Nevada, Ohio, and Tennessee.

  Number of these that HRC has won? FOUR (80%)
  HRC's Average Margin? 13.2%

• There are THREE "VERY SWINGY STATES". These are states who have voted Democratic in either 2 or 3 of 5 of the most recent Presidential elections. They are: Ohio, Tennessee, and West Virginia.

  Number of these that HRC has won? THREE (100%)
  
  HRC's Average Margin? 21.3%

• There are SIXTEEN "STRONG REPUBLICAN STATES". These are states who have voted Republican in 5/5 of the most recent Presidential elections.
  
  Percentage of HRC's wins from REP-States? 15% (3/20)
  Percentage of BHO's wins FROM REP-States? 41% (12/29)

• There are NINE (9) "STRONG DEMOCRATIC STATES" (Democratic in last 5/5).

  Percentage of HRC's wins from DEM-States? 10% (2/20)
  Percentage of BHO's wins from DEM-States? 07% (2/29)

BOTTOM LINE: HRC "Kicks Serious Booty" in Bellwether and Swing States, and BHO has relied on winning states that have not shown ANY inclination of voting Democratic for President.

Full post as published by TalkLeft on May 26, 2008 (boomark / email).