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The Popular Vote Six Ways: Where We Stand Today

By Jeralyn

Real Clear Politics calculates the popular vote six ways. I've reprinted all six below.

Not surprisingly, my view is that only the first two are valid because whatever happens with delegates, the Florida and Michigan elections were certified by the states and people pulled a lever or touched a screen or dropped off or sent in a ballot choosing a candidate and those votes must be counted.

The DNC and both candidates agree at least some FL and MI delegates will be seated at the convention. The delegate selection is based in large part on who their voters selected in their state's certified primaries -- the popular vote for the counties/districts in the two states. How can their votes not be counted in the popular vote total?

However you calculate the popular vote total today, here's the ultimate question: Between 1 and 2 million people may vote in Puerto Rico's open primary on June 1 (2 million voted in 2004.) If Hillary wins convincingly, not W. VA or KY numbers but convincingly, won't she clearly be ahead in the popular vote by any rational standard?

More...

There are almost 200 superdelegates yet to weigh in. There is no requirement for them to give more weight to the pledged delegate total than the popular vote total. While they may be hesitant to go just with electability, those who believe Hillary is both the popular vote winner and the more electable against John McCain should not hesitate to choose Hillary when all the votes have been counted after June 3.

Superdelegates who declared for Obama early, thinking FL and MI wouldn't count, or before the votes in every state and territory were cast, are free to change their mind up until the convention.

I hope those who haven't yet decided wait until all the votes are in before making a choice. This is a two person race. It is not over. One candidate will have won the pledged delegates and the other may well win the popular vote.

At that point, the electoral map must be considered by superdelegates. Who can best win against John McCain? Those superdelegates who believe that Ohio, PA and/or Florida are critical, should pick Hillary.

Here are the calculations six different ways:

Popular Vote (w/FL and MI but without estimates for the caucuses in IA, NV, ME, WA that didn't take attendance)

• Hillary: 17,426,809
  Obama: 17,262,155
  (Hillary + 164,654)

Popular Vote (w/FL and MI and estimates for the caucuses in IA, NV, ME, WA that didn't take attendance)

• Hillary: 17,650,671
  Obama: 17,596,239
  (Hillary: + 54,432)

Popular Vote Total Without Florida, Michigan and the caucuses that didn't take attendance:

• Hillary 16,227,514
  Obama 16,685,941
  (Obama + 458,427)

Popular Vote Without Florida and Michigan, but with estimates for the caucuses in IA, NV, ME, WA that didn't take attendance:

• Hillary: 16,451,376
  Obama: 17,020,025
  (Obama + 568,649)

Popular Vote (w/FL, without MI or estimates for the caucuses in IA, NV, ME, WA that didn't take attendance)

• Hillary: 17,098,500
  Obama: 17,262,155
  (Obama + 163,655)

Popular Vote With Florida, without Michigan, but with estimates for the caucuses in IA, NV, ME, WA that didn't take attendance:

• Hillary: 17,322,362
  Obama: 17,596,239
  (Obama + 273,877)

Additional calculations by Jay Cost of RCP are here. It's only current to May 7 and includes options for the Washington Primary, but not the Nebraska primary, where Hillary did much better than she did in the state's caucuses.

Here's the latest graphs from Jay Cost on Hillary and Obama's respective voting coalitions, as of May 23.

Full post as published by TalkLeft on May 25, 2008 (boomark / email).