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Polls Can Be Funny

By Big Tent Democrat

This new poll is going around. This part is hilarious:

Among Democratic primary voters (those who have voted or plan to vote in a Democratic primary) Obama’s lead over Clinton has increased -- he now leads Clinton by twelve points, 50 percent to 38 percent. That’s up from his eight point lead in the poll released just a few days ago. However, among all registered voters who identify themselves as Democrats (regardless of whether they have voted or plan to vote in a Democratic primary) Obama and Clinton are virtually tied -- 45 percent for Clinton and 44 percent for Obama. This is similar to the numbers earlier in the week.

(Emphasis supplied.) Ha! That is one of the funniest things I have ever read. What pollster comes up with the "likely to have voted" screen? Even better, what are the numbers for the people who will vote in the upcoming primaries? Do you think they polled Puerto Rico? That may be a quarter of the remaining vote. [More...] The funny thing is there is good news for Democrats in this poll - Obama beats McCain by 11 points. Oh by the way, Clinton beats him by 12 points. Somehow you will not be hearing that part of the story I think.

Moral of the story, be careful with polls. Most of them are useless. This one surely is.

Update [2008-5-4 20:10:2 by Big Tent Democrat]: NYTimes does not sell this poll finding, with good reason, the Dem primary calculation has an MOE of 6.

Full post as published by TalkLeft on May 04, 2008 (boomark / email).