Legal Commentary

Looking Ahead: Oregon Is The Test

By Big Tent Democrat

While we can pretend there have been recent ebbs and flows in the campaign, the reality is that from Super Tuesday on, almost invariably demography has been political destiny. Tell me the demographics of a state and I can tell you roughly what the electoral result will be. Consider North Carolina and Indiana. In North Carolina, Research2000 has Obama up 7. In Indiana, Ras has Clinton up 5. Why? To put it bluntly, it is because there are many more African American voters in North Carolina. Clinton leads among whites by 36 points in North Carolina and by 19 points in Indiana. She trails among African Americans in North Carolina by 88-5 and in Indiana by 90-4. In North Carolina a third of the electorate will be African American. In Indiana, 10% will be African Americans.

Clinton can not win in North Carolina. Period. And in Indiana, it is looking like Obama can not win. Looking forward, Obama has no chance in West Virginia or Kentucky. Where can he break this demographic narrative? Oregon. More . .

The latest SUSA Oregon poll has Obama leading by 6, 50-44. But what is really important for Obama is the fact that he is leading among whites 50-44. There is virtually no African American population in Oregon. 90% of the vote is white. According to SUSA, 3% is Latino and 6% is Asian. SUSA says Obama is holding his own with these groups in Oregon (he lost these groups 2-1 in California.)

In Oregon, on May 20, is where Obama can finish this race. By winning. If I were a super delegate, I would want Obama to win the race, not have him crowned by superdelegates. Let him win the nomination in Oregon, superdelegates. If he can.

By Big Tent Democrat, speaking for me only

Full post as published by TalkLeft on May 02, 2008 (boomark / email).