Legal Commentary

The fat lady has barely begun her warm-ups

By Beldar

Most of the mainstream media, and large chunks of the blogosphere, are behaving like children ? more specifically, like children who have not yet completed third-grade arithmetic.

Network anchors, national columnists, and prominent bloggers (left and right) have pronounced both the Fred Thompson and Rudy Giuliani campaigns either dead outright or else on life-support (with Do Not Resuscitate toe-tags).

But only three of fifty states have determined their delegates ? three very small states, at least two of which (the ones everyone has paid attention to) are arguably pretty unrepresentative of the Republican Party nationally.

There will be 2380 delegates at the 2008 Republican National Convention. So far, only 71 delegates ? less than 3% ? have been awarded. At least 1191 are needed for the nomination, and Mitt Romney, the current delegate leader (with 30), so far has less than 3% of the number he'd need for the nomination. And yet some pundits are writing him off (even though he's the only GOP candidate with an effectively unlimited bankroll).

Last night, John McCain won a grand total of seven delegates in New Hampshire. That's slightly more than twice as many as Fred Thompson won (3) by coming in second in Wyoming, but compare the volume of media coverage for the New Hampshire result. Note that based on those seven delegates, half the press is ready to declare McCain the "new GOP front-runner"! Yet McCain's win last night in New Hampshire only secured for him just under one third of one percent of the total number of GOP delegates!

If you're drawing firm conclusions now about how the race is going to turn out, you're letting yourself be suckered. The pollsters ? and the network anchors, national columnists, and prominent bloggers (left and right) who are relying on them ? were not only wrong in their prediction about who would win the Democratic primary in New Hampshire, they were wrong by huge margins, and now they can't even explain or agree upon why they were so wrong. The obvious conclusion: They are not reliable.

It's too soon to even rule out John Edwards on the Democratic side. And on the Republican side, five different candidates ? including Thompson and Giuliani ? still have realistic chances of winning. Anyone who insists otherwise needs a refresher in basic grade-school arithmetic.

After the huge wave of primaries on February 25th, the shape of one or both races may suddenly become crystal clear. My own guess, however, is that when the dust settles by the next morning, there will still be three potentially viable GOP candidates (Romney, Giuliani, and Thompson, since I personally don't believe that either McCain or Huckabee will win another primary, nor place higher than third in any important one), and two Democratic ones (Clinton and Obama). Now, that's just a guess; there's no science involved. But it's as good a guess, I respectfully submit, as what anyone can peddle or promote as of January 8, 2008.

What is relatively certain, however, is that for the rest of the primary season, no candidate has time to sway many voters through "retail politics" (i.e., personal appearances). Television advertising is going to be hugely important, so if you want to see your political contributions go a long way, right now is the time to give. And if you have ever been inclined to volunteer your time for a campaign, now would be a time when you might help make a real difference.

Full post as published by BeldarBlog on January 09, 2008 (boomark / email).