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Demography Is Political Destiny

By Big Tent Democrat

If you have been reading this site, you know that we have made the case that demography is political destiny in the Democratic Presidential contest. In every contest, Barack Obama has won 90% of the African American vote. In almost every contest, he has had trouble cracking 40% of the white working class vote, seniors and women.

Pennsylvania was no different. Obama won 89% of the African American vote. But only 38% of the white vote. He lost white women by nearly 2-1

12 million dollars in ads from Obama did not change this at all. The very real question that has been there throughout remains. Can Obama capture white working class voters critical to PA, OH, MI, etc.? North Carolina will not be where the Media pays attention to this. Indiana will be where the question is posed again. I'll explain why on the flip.

By Big Tent Democrat

The latest SUSA NC poll tells the tale. It shows Obama winning 50-41. It shows Obama winning African Americans 83-10. It shows Obama losing whites 53-36. You may note that looks a lot like Pennsylvania. But here it is Obama up near 10. The difference is SUSA projects 30% of the North Carolina Dem electorate to be African American. Clinton can not win in North Carolina. Period. Losing by 10 is as good as it gets for Clinton.

Indiana is where Obama's appeal to working class whites will be tested again. SUSA's latest Indiana poll shows us why. It has Clinton up 16. And the demos? Obama wins African Americans 80-20. Clinton wins whites 59-35. Pretty much like North Carolina. The difference? African Americans will only make up 11% of the vote in Indiana according to SUSA.

Obama will win African Americans 90-10. Mark it up now. The question is what percentage of the white vote will he get? He needs 45% of the white vote in Indiana to win. He has not gotten that in contested big states. Unless he breaks that mold, Obama will lose Indiana. And if Indiana follows Ohio and Pennsylvania, he'll lose by double digits.

Full post as published by TalkLeft on April 23, 2008 (boomark / email).