Legal Commentary

Worst Pollsters On PA: Clinton Comfortably Ahead

By Big Tent Democrat

By Big Tent Democrat

The worst pollsters, ARG and Zogby (PDF), have new PA numbers. ARG has Clinton by 13, 54-41 (down from a 20 point lead) and Zogby has Clinton up 6, 48-42 (up from a 3 point lead). Watch Zogby hedge his bet:

“A big one-day of polling for Clinton. If a 10-point victory is the pundit-driven threshold she needs on Tuesday, it looks like she can do it. This does not look like a one-day anomaly – undecideds dropped to only 5% in this latest single day of polling, and they are breaking Clinton’s way. As I suggested yesterday, if white and Catholic voters, who still are the biggest portion of undecideds, actually vote, Clinton will have her double-digit victory. Just today alone, she polled 53% to Obama’s 38%.

Sure, Zogby, whatever you say. ARG's internals make sense to me:

Clinton leads 63% to 32% among white voters (81% of likely Democratic primary voters). Obama leads 86% to 12% among African American voters (15% of likely Democratic primary voters).

That adds up to 57-43 Clinton I think.

Full post as published by TalkLeft on April 20, 2008 (boomark / email).