Legal Commentary

PPP PA Poll: Obama By 3

By Big Tent Democrat

By Big Tent Democrat

PPP has Barack Obama leading by 3 in Pennsylvania. To call this an outlier is an understatement. It is the only poll that has Obama ahead. PPP seems intent on making a name for itself in Pennsylvania, one way or another.

More . . .

PPP provides us a turnout model and crosstabs. Turnout according to PPP will be 77% white, 17% A-A, 6% Other.

PPP has Clinton leading by only 12 among whites, 49-37 and has Obama leading 77-12 among African American. Among the 6% labelled "Other", Obama leads 53-40, but with such a small subsample, it is hard to make much of that number. In an event the difference produces less than 1% advantage for Obama.

The key finding is 49-37 (with 13% undecided) among white voters. If Obama can hold this spread, he has a great chance of WINNING PA. This spread is much lower than that found in any other poll and would be Obama's best performance among white voters outside of Wisconsin and Virginia. It runs counter all other polls. I find it hard to believe. But it would be terrific news if it were true. Because then Barack Obama will be a truly viable candidate in Pennsylvania in November.

Full post as published by TalkLeft on April 16, 2008 (boomark / email).