Legal Commentary

Why SUSA Provides the Most Helpful Polling

By Big Tent Democrat

By Big Tent Democrat

Speaking for me only

Why do most bloggers who follow polling closely emphasize the Survey USA results? The better question to me is why does the Media ignore the Survey USA results? For Pennsylvania, many of us look for SUSA first and foremost for good reasons. Here are three of them - SUSA's results, INCLUDING INTERNALS, for the three states nearest Pennsylvania in terms of location and demographics, New York, New Jersey and Ohio, were by far the most accurate. I'll demonstrate on the flip.

SUSA's last NY poll had Clinton winning by 18, winning white 61-32(56% of the vote), losing A-As by 59-37 (21% of the vote), winning Hispanics by 66-26 (17% of the vote).

The result? Clinton by 17. According to exit polls, she won whites by 59-37 (70% of the vote), lost by 61-37 by A-As (16% of the vote), won Hispanics 70-26 (10% of the vote).

In SUSA's last New Jersey poll had Clinton winning by 11, winning whites 61-31(63% of the vote), losing A-As by 76-22 (18% of the vote), winning Hispanics by 49-43 (10% of the vote).

The result? Clinton by 10. According to exit polls, she won whites by 66-34 (59% of the vote), lost A-As by 82-14 (23% of the vote), won Hispanics 68-30 (12% of the vote).

The last Ohio SUSA poll had Clinton winning by 10, winning whites 62-36(81% of the vote) and losing A-As by 83-15 (16% of the vote).

The result? Clinton by 10. According to exit polls, she won whites by 64-34 (76% of the vote) and lost A-As by 87-13 (18% of the vote)

The best polling outfit by far in this election has been Survey USA, particularly in contests like Pennsylvania. And almost as importantly, SUSA's errors are consistent, underestimating Obama's A-A support and to a lesser degree, African American turnout. Since these errors have been consistent, it is easy to adjust SUSA's results to "correct" SUSA's previous errors.

It is the most helpful polling we have yet seen in any recent election.

Full post as published by TalkLeft on April 15, 2008 (boomark / email).