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Update on QE2: Likely to end in June as Scheduled

By Anonymous

I always pay close attention to Fed stories from Jon Hilsenrath at the WSJ: Fed Unlikely to Remove Its Economic Stimulus Just Yet

Hilsenrath makes several key points:
? QE2 will probably end in June: "the securities purchase program ... is likely to end in June as scheduled."

? Tapering off of purchases unlikely: "Though the idea of tapering has received some attention on Wall Street of late, officials seem unlikely to want to follow that course this time ..."

? Fed will probably take a wait and see approach after June to see "how the economy performs later in the year without [QE2]."

? The "hawks" aren't pushing hard to finish early.

As I noted in When will the Fed raise rates?, this suggests a timeline for the earliest Fed funds rate increase:
? End of QE2 in June.
? End of reinvestment 0 to 2 months later.
? Drop extended period language a couple months later
? Raise rates in early 2012.

That is probably the earliest the Fed will raise rates - and it could be later in 2012 or even later ...

Earlier:
? Summary for last week ending March 4th
? Schedule for Week of March 6th

Full post as published by Calculated Risk on March 06, 2011 (boomark / email).