Here is a price index for commercial real estate that I follow.
From CoStar: Annual Pricing Gains Seen Across All Regions and Property Types Despite Seasonal Slowdown in First Quarter 2013
PRICING RECOVERY SLUGGISH IN THE FIRST QUARTER: The two broadest measures of aggregate pricing for commercial properties within the CCRSI?the value-weighte Posted on Calculated Risk on May 17, 2013 at 11:40 PM
Welcome to the Counterparties email. The sign-up page is here, it?s just a matter of checking a box if you?re already registered on the Reuters website. Send suggestions, story tips and complaints to Counterparties.Reuters@gmail.com. Posted on Macroprudential on May 17, 2013 at 5:14 PM
Container traffic gives us an idea about the volume of goods being exported and imported - and possibly some hints about the trade report for April since LA area ports handle about 40% of the nation's container port traffic.
The following graphs are for inbound and outbound traffic at the ports of Los Angeles and Long Beach in TEUs (TEUs: 20-foot equi Posted on Calculated Risk on May 17, 2013 at 12:47 PM
From the BLS: April jobless rates down in 40 states, up in 3; payroll jobs up in 30 states, down in 18
Regional and state unemployment rates were generally little changed in April. Forty states and the District of Columbia had unemployment rate decreases, three states had increases, and seven states had no change, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistic Posted on Calculated Risk on May 17, 2013 at 10:57 AM
Click on graph for larger image.
The preliminary Reuters / University of Michigan consumer sentiment index for May increased to 83.7 from the April reading of 76.4. This is the highest level since July 2007.
This was well above the consensus forecast of 78.0. Sentiment has generally been improving following the recession Posted on Calculated Risk on May 17, 2013 at 10:42 AM
From the WSJ: To Buy Bonds or Not to Buy: Fed Hawks, Doves Air Views
The presidents of the Dallas, Richmond and Philadelphia Federal Reserve banks, long skeptics of the wisdom of the bond buying, said this week that they would like to see the purchases scaled back immediately.
And San Francisco Fed President John Williams, who has been enthusiastic a Posted on Calculated Risk on May 16, 2013 at 11:40 PM
Economist Tom Lawler sent me the updated table below of short sales, foreclosures and cash buyers for several selected cities in April.
Look at the two columns in the table for Total "Distressed" Share. In every area that has reported distressed sales so far, the share of distressed sales is down year-over-year - and down signif Posted on Calculated Risk on May 16, 2013 at 5:55 PM
A few comments:
? Overall the housing starts report was a little disappointing. Even just looking at single family starts (removing the volatile multi-family sector), starts were down 2.1% from March. However single family starts were up 20.8% year-over-year, and that is a solid increase.
? Even with this significant year-over-year increase, housing Posted on Calculated Risk on May 16, 2013 at 3:12 PM
The Cleveland Fed released the median CPI and the trimmed-mean CPI this morning:
According to the Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland, the median Consumer Price Index rose 0.2% (1.8% annualized rate) in April. The 16% trimmed-mean Consumer Price Index increased 0.1% (1.0% annualized rate) during the month. The median CPI and 16% trimmed-mean CPI are mea Posted on Calculated Risk on May 16, 2013 at 11:49 AM
Note: I'll have more on housing starts and inflation later ...
From the Philly Fed: May Manufacturing Survey
Manufacturing firms responding to the monthly Business Outlook Survey suggest that regional manufacturing activity weakened this month. All of the survey?s broadest current indicators were negative this month, indicating we Posted on Calculated Risk on May 16, 2013 at 10:42 AM
From the Census Bureau: Permits, Starts and Completions
Privately-owned housing starts in April were at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 853,000. This is 16.5 percent below the revised March estimate of 1,021,000, but is 13.1 percent above the April 2012 rate of 754,000.
Single-family housing starts in April were at a rate Posted on Calculated Risk on May 16, 2013 at 9:42 AM
The DOL reports:
In the week ending May 11, the advance figure for seasonally adjusted initial claims was 360,000, an increase of 32,000 from the previous week's revised figure of 328,000. The 4-week moving average was 339,250, an increase of 1,250 from the previous week's revised average of 338,000.
The previous week was revised up.
The following gr Posted on Calculated Risk on May 16, 2013 at 8:30 AM
From Realtor.com: April realtor.com® Report Shows Housing Recovery Accelerating, As List Price And Inventory Increase
In April, the total number of single-family homes, condos, townhomes and co-ops for sale in the U.S. (1,750,839) increased by 4.12 percent month-over-month. On an annual basis, however, inventory decreased by 13.54 percent.
The medi Posted on Calculated Risk on May 15, 2013 at 11:40 PM
Welcome to the Counterparties email. The sign-up page is here, it?s just a matter of checking a box if you?re already registered on the Reuters website. Send suggestions, story tips and complaints to Counterparties.Reuters@gmail.com. Posted on Macroprudential on May 15, 2013 at 6:37 PM
From housing economist Tom Lawler:
Based on a limited sample of reports from state and local realtor groups and/or MLS, I estimate that existing home sales as measured by the National Association of Realtors ran at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of about 5.03 million, up 2.2% from April?s disappointing pace.
On the inventory side, all entities tra Posted on Calculated Risk on May 15, 2013 at 5:31 PM
From DataQuick: Highest Southland April Home Sales Since '06; Median Price Nears 5-Yr High
Southern California homes sold at the fastest pace for an April in seven years amid the release of pent-up demand for move-up homes and high levels of investor purchases. ... A total of 21,415 new and resale houses and condos sold in Los Angeles, Riverside, San Posted on Calculated Risk on May 15, 2013 at 3:24 PM
Ezra Klein has a good summary of the latest CBO budget projections, which show that the national debt really isn't going to be a problem at any point in the foreseeable future. Posted on Macroprudential on May 15, 2013 at 2:00 PM
In addition to Case-Shiller, CoreLogic, FHFA and LPS, I'm also watching the FNC, Zillow and several other house price indexes.
From FNC: FNC Index: U.S. Home Prices Up 0.4% in March
The latest FNC Residential Price Index? (RPI) shows the U.S. housing market continued to recover, recording in March the 13th consecutive price increase. In recent month Posted on Calculated Risk on May 15, 2013 at 12:37 PM
The National Association of Home Builders (NAHB) reported the housing market index (HMI) increased 3 points in May to 44. Any number under 50 indicates that more builders view sales conditions as poor than good.
From the NAHB: Builder Confidence Improves in May
Builder confidence in the market for newly built, single-family homes improved three poi Posted on Calculated Risk on May 15, 2013 at 10:42 AM
From the Fed: Industrial production and Capacity Utilization
Industrial production decreased 0.5 percent in April after having increased 0.3 percent in March and 0.9 percent in February. Manufacturing output moved down 0.4 percent in April after a decline of 0.3 percent in March. The index for utilities decreased 3.7 percent in April, a Posted on Calculated Risk on May 15, 2013 at 9:42 AM
? From the BBC: Eurozone recession continues into sixth quarter
The recession across the 17-nation eurozone has continued into a sixth quarter, figures show.
The bloc's economy shrank by 0.2% between January and March, according to official figures. ...
The figure marks the longest recession since the euro was launched in 1999.
It was worse than t Posted on Calculated Risk on May 15, 2013 at 8:36 AM
From the MBA: Mortgage Applications Decrease in Latest MBA Weekly Survey
The Refinance Index decreased 8 percent from the previous week. The seasonally adjusted Purchase Index decreased 4 percent from one week earlier.
After declining for seven weeks straight, the average contract interest rate for 30-year fixed-rate mortgages with conform Posted on Calculated Risk on May 15, 2013 at 8:18 AM